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August 5, 2005
More on North Korea
Paul French, an expert on North Korea, gives this interesting analysis of the current crisis in negotiations over nuclear weapons with the North Koreans. His view that the Chinese are tired of dealing with North Korea's problems is something I had not been aware of.
He (Kim) was shown round a GM plant and a hi-tech factory in Shanghai, and received a lecture about the benefits of Chinese-style reform.
The Chinese were effectively telling Mr Kim that it was time for change - and that they were fed up with the growing number of refugees fleeing over the Chinese border, and increasing demands for aid.......
But the diplomacy is failing because North Korea, with no allies but the increasingly exasperated Chinese, and little prospect of economic revitalisation, needs to ensure a continued drip feed of aid.
That means a hard bargaining process, and Mr Kim has one bargaining chip - his nuclear bombs.
Without the bombs, North Korea plays second string in the Far East. Granted it possesses a large army, and will continue to be a threat to the South, but otherwise it plays no significant role in any political or economic activities in the area. As long as Kim has a bomb, or people think he does, they will be more willing to include him in regional issues. He is such a meglomaniac, it seems inconceivable that he will give up his cards without a big economic or political score. Eventually he will have to do something that improves the plight of his people, otherwise the country will completely collapse. If he opens the country to foreigners, including investments, his people might realize how much he has screwed them and revolt.
Posted by Chip Spear at August 5, 2005 9:05 AM
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