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September 28, 2005
America's Secret War
I just finished George Friedman's book, America's Secret War. George is the founder of Stratfor, a web site and company focusing on "breaking intelligence and analysis on political, economic, military, and security events around the world." I can't recommend his book highly enough, not because everything he says is necessarily true, but it definitely put the Iraq war in a much different context than what I thought when I began to read it.
A couple major points that he makes is that one of the major reasons for invading Iraq was to deal with the growing problems inside of Saudi Arabia. The U.S. felt that it could not invade Saudi Arabia, and actually did not want to get rid of the House of Saud. What they did want was for the rulers to start pressuring extremist elements within the country, which they had not been doing. The Bushies thought that they would do so if the U.S. was sitting on its border with a large contingent of troops. In addition, the U.S. needed to appear strong to Arab world, and especially radical elements, by being willing to act alone instead of relying on alliances. The U.S. was also working regularly with Iranian intelligence. The U.S. left Fallujah to the Sunnis the first time as part of a poker game with the Shiites and Ali al-Sistani. He was, and still is, using the U.S. to do his dirty work and solidify his power in the country. In order to establish a stronger bargaining position with the Shiites the U.S. had to have stronger ties with the Sunnis. Leaving the city to the Sunnis signaled that the U.S. was willing to accommodate some Sunni concerns. The Americans were able to leverage their relationship with the Sunnis to mitigate Al-Sistani's control.
I feel that this was has been exceedingly badly managed, but I do think there is a great deal at stake that gives me pause before advocating a quick pull-out. Pick up the book and give it a read. It will definitely make you think.
Posted by Chip Spear at September 28, 2005 12:05 PM