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November 30, 2005
China Plays Great Chess Against Russia
According to Stratfor, China is carefully playing Russia every way possible to extend its influence in the Far East.
And both men [Medvedev and Ivanov] see China as an opportunity: It is a customer for Russian energy and weapons, and -- by forming a political alliance against the West -- a crucial potential partner in security policy. But, unlike the siloviki, they are also more likely to take a comprehensive view of the power to the east, noting the implications of its giant economy and China's recent "Northern Sword" military exercises, staged on Russia's southern border. It has not been lost on either that ethnic Chinese in the border region outnumber the Russians by more than ten to one.
While the Kremlin treated China as an ally, Beijing has viewed Russia as an opportunity at best or a nuisance at worst -- but certainly not an equal. Wary of political strings Russia tends to attach to deals, China has been focusing on Kazakhstan as a key source of energy supplies, and sending its money there rather than to Russia. Meanwhile, Beijing is unofficially encouraging its citizens to migrate to Siberia, while also buying Russian hardware to upgrade its military capabilities. And China has steadily siphoned influence away in North Korea, leaving Russia largely an outside observer in the six-party nuclear negotiations. None of this would have been possible if Moscow had been taking a more realistic assessment of Beijing's motives and actions.
I am most interested in the issue of China unofficially urging its citizens to settle in Siberia. By increasing the percentage of Chinese to Russians, which is already 10 to 1, they are clearly looking to exploit the disparity to not only increase influence in the region, but perhaps making some claim to controlling the area. Wouldn't that be something. The Chinese not only take advantage of short term gains, as most countries do, but also think in the long term, which is most unusual in our increasingly instantaneous world. They seem to be setting themselves up for more gains as their economic and military might increases over the next decade, or two or three. What a concept. Perhaps we could learn some lessons.
Posted by Chip Spear at November 30, 2005 9:48 AM