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January 19, 2006
Iran - What Now?
The situation and strategies
Iran ------
Ambitious, Arrogant Leadership
Wants to lead the Muslim World
Exceptionally rich
Hates the West
Wants to destroy Israel
Leadership doesn't travel
Occupies a geographically important position relative to shipping and oil
Educated middle class
Developing Nuclear Weapons in dispersed, underground and unknown locations.
Could care less what the UN thinks.
Has huge oil contracts with China, which desparately needs their oil
Could quickly cut off oil supplies to the West in event of an attack resulting in huge price increases
U.S. and the West --------
Economic sanctions - would have little effect, plus the Chinese would probably oppose
Restrict diplomatic travel - the mullahs wouldn't care.
Military action -
Quick, short strike - very limited hope of success if targeting nuclear sites due to dispersed nature of nuclear program (see above).
Large scale invasion - Impossible to surprise Iran about an attack. U.S. doesn't have the resources now for a prolonged and difficult war while engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan. There would be a huge stress on the military which would be difficult to maintain. Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a disasterous jump on oil prices. Iran could attack U.S. in Iraq very easily. The U.S. would get very little international help.
Anticipated Actions:
I feel that we can expect a long period of diplomacy and a rebirth of some type of cold war with Iran unless they launch an attack on the West, which includes Israel. In such a circumstance the U.S. would try to destroy the Iranian government as quickly as possible, whatever the difficulties.
Posted by Chip Spear at January 19, 2006 12:05 PM
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