PoliticalSports: The Ultimate Game

March 5, 2008

Foreign Policy Experience

What exactly does "foreign policy experience" mean? I really don't know. Do you have foreign policy experience if you sat on an Foreign Affairs Committee in the House of the Committee on Foreign Relations in the Senate? Or do you have foreign policy experience if you were an ambassador to Costa Rica? Or if you wrote a book about a European war?

The point I am trying to make here is that this is a very complicated. I am not so sure that sitting on a committee or even traveling around the world on some trade commission junket makes you better able to make decisions. I would contend that spending time in Europe does not necessarily prepare you for solving a crisis in South America, or in SE Asia. Those cultures are very different, with distinct problems and ways of looking at the world. I don't think anyone is really knowledgeable enough to say they are really experienced to solve the problems of the world.

There are so many countries, with so many issues, cultures, religions, races, and everything else that exists, that no one person can really know "foreign policy". Perhaps what one should ask is whether an individual running for President has the strength and humility to know how much and little he or she actually knows about a situation. Then, will that person bring in the right experts for advice, and god forbid, actually listen to what they have to say. I would contend that is much more important.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:43 PM

June 15, 2007

North Korea gets the money

The issue regarding the transfer of $25 million is resolved. North Korea either has, or is getting its money. (Time) Now the North will start dismantling their nuclear weapon facilities. Yea, sure. Would you like to place a bet on that? I can't see the future, but I think it will be a long time before the North stops their program. I am interested to know what excuse(s) they will voice now.

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:41 PM | Comments (0)

June 6, 2007

Oh Boy, Here We Go

The Iranians are playing around in Iraq and now we have the Turks crossing the northern border, chasing Kurdish rebels. (AP)

Several thousand Turkish troops crossed into northern Iraq early Wednesday to chase Kurdish guerrillas who operate from bases there, Turkish security officials told The Associated Press.

Two senior security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said the raid was limited in scope and that it did not constitute the kind of large incursion that Turkish leaders have been discussing in recent weeks.

And they are discussing bigger moves. Oh boy, a regional war. Just what we all hoped for, isn't it?

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:44 AM

May 4, 2007

Kim Keeps Playing

I am almost thinking that the whole North Korea thing is a joke. Have you been following it? The recent deadline, March 15th, for North Korea to start shutting down its nuclear reactors, came and went with no action. The North Koreans complained that they were still unable to get $25 million held in a Macau bank. The U.S. indicated that they had arranged to get all the funds released. According to the North Koreans that has still not happened and as a result, they refuse to shut down their nuclear program. Unbelievable, really. The U.S. is saying there are "technical difficulties". That is a joke. We are talking about $25 million, chump change in terms of the U.S. budget and the world economy. It is like holding up negotiations because of a nickel. It there were a real problem the U.S. would get on the phone, or the North Koreans would get on a phone, make a couple of calls and get this resolved. But that is clearly not happening. The North Koreans, as I have repeatedly suggested, have no intention of shutting down their program.

Hill [Christopher Hill, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs] was hopeful that illicit North Korean funds frozen in a Macau bank and scheduled to have been returned by March 15 under the nuclear accord would be freed up soon. The process was said to have been held up by "technical issues."

I have not found any major U.S. newspaper following this story.

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:49 PM

April 18, 2007

Surge Strategy Thrown for a Loss

Six bombings, 170 dead, 193 wounded today. Seems like the whole surge strategy thing is having a few problems. (CNN)

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:35 AM

April 11, 2007

The North Korean Rope-a-Dope

They bob, they weave. Wherever you throw a punch, they seem to slip away. Yes folks the North Koreans, on the verge of shutting down their nuclear reactors seem to be sliding away from the mark. Do you think they will do it? Shut down those reactors? Do you, really? Not me. (CNA)

The United States expects North Korea to meet a Saturday deadline to fulfil its side of a landmark deal to rein in its nuclear programme, officials said on Wednesday, as news came from the reclusive state that its premier had been sacked.

I had a feeling that something would happen that would lead to another delay. One way or another that little guy is going to keep his nukes....that is my take.

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:50 PM

North Korea Nuclear Update

After all the money, all the effort and all the diplomatic gamesmanship, does anyone actually believe that the North Koreans are going to shutdown their reactor and suspend their nuclear program? (AP) I am hopeful, but highly skeptical.

If North Korea follows through with its promises, they would be the first moves Pyongyang has made to scale back its nuclear development since it kicked out international inspectors and in 2003 restarted its sole operating nuclear reactor.

But the hard-won agreement, reached four months after Pyongyang rattled the world by testing a nuclear device, was held up by the dispute over North Korean funds frozen in the Macau bank.

Authorities in the Chinese territory of Macau said Wednesday that North Korea can withdraw the money. Richardson said the Macau bank is expected to formally notify North Korea later Wednesday or Thursday that the regime can access its funds.

Acknowledging it might be difficult to meet the Saturday reactor shutdown deadline, Richardson called on the North to show goodwill and invite U.N. inspectors by then "to at least start the process of shutting it down."

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:47 AM

April 10, 2007

More North Korea Questions

What is going on here? (AP)

The optimism from U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill comes after the U.S.
Treasury Department said authorities in the Chinese-administered region of Macau are prepared to unblock the frozen funds that North Korea says are the reason it has refused to move forward on a disarmament agreement.

The Macau government said it was aware of the Treasury statement and that it would work with all parties involved. "Simultaneously, it expects all parties concerned to come up with appropriate and responsible arrangements respectively," it said on its Web site.

A call to a spokesman of Banco Delta Asia, the bank where the funds are being held, was not immediately returned Tuesday. The lender had been blacklisted by Washington for allegedly helping the North launder money and its North Korean accounts were frozen. The bank has denied any wrongdoing.

Washington blacklists a bank in Macao for laundering money months ago. The money is frozen in the bank. Now the U.S. says that it is trying to get the money "unfrozen". Huh? What is the hold up? Why can't the bank now release the funds? It had been moving the money around quite easily, what is the problem now? Something is rotten in Denmark.

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:38 AM | Comments (0)

April 9, 2007

Something is happening here, and we clearly have no clue what it is

North Korea is once again balking at shutting down its nuclear program because of some "technicality" related to the release of $25 million stuck in a Macao bank. (CNA) This has been going on for some time now with no resolution.

The US point man on North Korea said on Monday it was uncertain whether a banking row could be resolved in time to meet this week's deadline in a breakthrough aid-for-disarmament deal.

Envoy Christopher Hill started a three-nation regional tour amid intense US diplomacy ahead of Saturday's deadline, which Japan and China have both publicly doubted can be met.

North Korea pledged in a six-nation deal in February to shut down its key Yongbyon nuclear facility and allow the return of UN nuclear inspectors by April 14 in return for badly needed fuel aid.

But the communist state has refused to move until it receives US$25 million of its money which was unfrozen from a Macau bank but has taken time to work its way to Pyongyang.

I know that the money came from illegal North Korean operations, or at least that is what the West contends. The thing I don't understand is why let a small sum of $25 million hold up the nuclear deal? I think there is much more going on than we are being told (once again).

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:56 PM

April 8, 2007

Hmmmmm, this is a shock

The AP writes:

"The corroded and corrupt state of Saddam was replaced by the corroded, inefficient, incompetent and corrupt state of the new order," Ali A. Allawi concludes in "The Occupation of
Iraq," newly published by Yale University Press.

Allawi writes with authority as a member of that "new order," having served as Iraq's trade, defense and finance minister at various times since 2003. As a former academic, at Oxford University before the U.S.-British invasion of Iraq, he also writes with unusual detachment.

The U.S.- and British-educated engineer and financier is the first senior Iraqi official to look back at book length on his country's four-year ordeal. It's an unsparing look at failures both American and Iraqi, an account in which the word "ignorance" crops up repeatedly.

First came the "monumental ignorance" of those in Washington pushing for war in 2002 without "the faintest idea" of Iraq's realities. "More perceptive people knew instinctively that the invasion of Iraq would open up the great fissures in Iraqi society," he writes.

Follow the link, there is much more of interest.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:36 PM

April 7, 2007

The Iranians and O.I.L (Our Illustrious Leader)

Doesn't the recent incident with the Iranians remind you of George? The British were clearly in Iraqi waters. How do I know? Well, I wasn't there actually, and I don't have a GPS even if I was, but the Iranians changed there story regarding the coordinates shortly after they found out the first location they gave for the British capture was in Iraqi waters. Enough said. But what do they do? They lie, repeat the lie continually, get many within Iran to believe them, and act as if everyone else is at fault, using their lie for political purposes. Did you see the pictures on the news of the huge demonstrations? Looked like a huge number of brainwashed people to me. Does this sound familiar? It sure does to me.

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:43 AM

April 3, 2007

McCain Swings and Misses

John McCain traveled to Baghdad, walked around a market, and attempted to convince America that the media was wrong, the city was actually much safer than reported. "See," he seemed to say as he walked around the marketplace, "it is safe, no one is shooting at me, I am not getting blown to bits."

Do you think it worked? Were you convinced? Did the fact that over 100 soldiers accompanied him alter your thinking? What about helicopter gunship hovering overhead? I bet everyone travels that way everyday in Baghdad. (NYT)

The delegation arrived at the market, which is called Shorja, on Sunday with more than 100 soldiers in armored Humvees - the equivalent of an entire company - and attack helicopters circled overhead, a senior American military official in Baghdad said. The soldiers redirected traffic from the area and restricted access to the Americans, witnesses said, and sharpshooters were posted on the roofs. The congressmen wore bulletproof vests throughout their hourlong visit.

McCain is in a tough spot. He has been in the forefront of the push for more troops to regain the offensive in Iraq. Unfortunately for him, and his Presidential bid, the facts speak a different story. Despite the influx of troops, days are not safer for Iraqis. The plan is not working. McCain has hooked his wagon to a shaky strategy. If it fails, as it appears to be doing now, his candidacy is in serious trouble.

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:03 AM

March 29, 2007

Iran Keeps Punching

I love foreign affairs. There is so much happening, with most way beyond one's comprehension, certainly mine. I watch and read everything I can about Iran and North Korea these days. The latest scrap with Iran and the 15 British hostages is no exception. I listened to a good analysis last night on NPR as I was driving home from work. The analyst, I forget his name, suggested that the Iranians are feeling a great deal of pressure now, with the U.N. sanctions and condemnation for their nuclear adventures. Even their pals the Russians and Chinese are against them. So what do they do? They remind everyone that they still have some punch left in their gloves by snatching those sailors and making up the technical details, like the fact that they were in Iranian waters. You say we aren't sure? The Iranians tried to prove their claim by providing specific coordinates of the capture. Unfortunately for them the coordinates they gave were for a position inside Iraqi territorial waters. The next day they "corrected" their claims. And now they say that the British were actually in Iranian waters 6 times. Their claims are clearly suspect. (CNN)

Wednesday, the British Ministry of Defense gave what it said was proof that the British ship carrying the sailors and marines never strayed into Iranian waters.

British Vice Adm. Charles Style said the global positioning system on the ship proves the vessel was "clearly" 3.1 kilometers (1.7 nautical miles) inside Iraqi waters.

Iran insists the ship was inside its territorial waters and, according to Style, provided a map with coordinates on Saturday in an attempt to prove the point.

Style said those coordinates actually "turned out to confirm they were in Iraqi waters" and Iraq has supported that position.

Upon pointing that out Sunday through diplomatic contacts, Style said Iran then "provided a second set of coordinates" on Monday that were "in Iranian waters over two nautical miles" from the position shown by the HMS Cornwall and confirmed by the merchant vessel the British personnel boarded. (CNN)

The "change of coordinates," Style said "is hard to legitimate."

One thing we can be sure of is that the abduction is part of a larger game. The Iranians are trying to reverse current momentum by going on the offensive here to counteract the recent International

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:31 AM

August 23, 2006

When you get lots of sex from a prostitute, you aren't too anxious to throw her in jail for breaking the law.

Russia and China both urge restraint and negotiations with Iran over the nuclear development pursuit. (AP)

Iran urged Europe on Wednesday to pay attention to what it called "positive" signals in its counterproposal to a nuclear incentives package aimed at persuading Tehran to roll back its nuclear program. Russia and China backed Iran's call for negotiations to end the standoff....

If the Iranians were to leave the door open to halting enrichment as talks progress, for example, that would drive a wedge between the Americans, British and French on one side and the Russians and Chinese on the other. Last month, Russia said the Security Council was in no rush to pressure Iran, striking a more conciliatory tone than the United States.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said it would continue to seek a negotiated solution. China appealed for dialogue, urging "constructive measures" by Iran and patience from the U.S. and its allies.

They each have so many business deals cooking with the Iranians the last thing they want is to vote for sanctions. Plus they have little incentive to help the West increase its power in the region. It appears that neither feels particularly threatened if Iran does acquire nuclear weapons.

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:25 PM

July 23, 2006

Persian Hitler

I think that Andrew Sullivan (Time) hits the nail on the head when he says that we are facing a Persian Hitler with Iranian President Ahmadinejad.

"I invite the faithful to wait for good news. We shall soon witness the elimination of the Zionist stain of shame," - Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

I don't think there can be much doubt that Ahmadinejad's eschatology demands a second Holocaust for the Jews, and that is impossible to understand Hezbollah without seeing them as an instrument for this Persian Hitler to achieve his aims. That's why, despite the horrifying toll on Lebanon's infrastructure and civilians, the Israeli response does not seem to me to be disproportionate to the existential threat it faces - and would face even more starkly if Hezbollah became the emboldened tip of the Iranian spear.

So, does the international community recognize the obvious, or do they hide, like many did with Hitler by refusing to admit how horrible he was before it was too late and refusing to do nothing about it? And then what do they do?

Israel is not necessarily wrong to react strongly to a group, or groups whose reason for being is the destruction of the Jewish state. If someone was committed to killing me, and would do anything to do so, I imagine I would react vehemently against him or her, especially if no one was willing to protect me.

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:52 PM

June 6, 2006

Mahmoud Keeps Scoring

Greetings sports fans. I am been more than a little remiss recently making any posts. I was busy with some other money related activities the past couple of weeks, and now I am accompanying my Mom on a cruise along the West coast of Europe until June 14th. Politics is not much on my mind these days. I am taking a welcome break. I don’t have much access to the news, since I can’t spend much time online and there are no newspapers on the ship.

Of what little I do hear or see (the boat gets Fox News) the one political story that sticks out is the play of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This guy is good! He seems to have the West wrapped around his little finger. No matter what defense the U.S. uses, he keeps gaining yards. His appeal to the Arab street grows as ours declines. The U.S. says it will now negotiate directly, if and when Iran stops its nuclear program. Oh really, why would he do that? If I were him, I wouldn’t. What is the incentive? I think that that is would one should ask oneself.

So let’s role play. If I was in his position, I would probably do the same thing. If I were ambitious, which I am, but in a different context, I would hear that axis of evil talk, see the U.S. invade Iraq and think that we have trouble, right here in River City. I wouldn’t trust a thing the U.S. said. Plus, I would have no desire to be their little lapdog. Screw that. I am ambitious, I see an opportunity to expand my influence in the Muslim world, I can regain international stature, become a major force in the world, why do what the U.S. says? Forget it. The question is whether I can get away with it, evade the defense and score some points. From what I see, the guy is doing pretty well with his fans. He is gaining respect in the Middle East and the world is paying attention to him. Not bad. I am not a fan of his, but the guy is adept at his gamesmanship.

The U.S. is in a box. What do they do, attack? They could, and given OIL’s (Our Illustrious Leader) track record anything is possible, but it seems like any military move would lead to a counterproductive result. Many analysts, more knowledgeable than I, have said the same thing. The U.S. should reassess its defense to more effectively counteract Iran’s offensive juggernaut.

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:47 PM

May 21, 2006

No Colored Patches in Iran

More than a few news organizations report that the initial story indicating that Iran was to force non-Muslims to wear various identifying patches was wrong. Buyer beware. If you want a list I shall post it.

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:51 PM | Comments (1)

U.S. Mismanages Iraqi Police Training

In another NY Times piece, the paper reports that the U.S. badly mismanaged the training of Iraqi police. This is news? We didn't know this? Or is it the specifics that is new and interesting? It is widely known that the U.S. had far too few troops and support personnel in Iraq to deal with the aftermath of the fall of Saddam. Cobra II, the excellent book by Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor describe in some detail how the Administration thought they could invade, conquer and leave without dealing with the aftermath. Granted they did not go into explicit detail about the police force, but they did explain the administration's tactics and strategy, which has been a disaster. Others have reiterated the same conclusion. (NYT)

Arrogance is such an "interesting" state of mind.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:22 AM | Comments (0)

May 19, 2006

Iran to Force Non-Muslims to Wear Colored Patches

Here we go again. (CNP). It seems quite clear that these are not nice people.

Iranian expatriates living in Canada yesterday confirmed reports that the Iranian parliament, called the Islamic Majlis, passed a law this week setting a dress code for all Iranians, requiring them to wear almost identical "standard Islamic garments."

The law, which must still be approved by Iran's "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenehi before being put into effect, also establishes special insignia to be worn by non-Muslims.

Iran's roughly 25,000 Jews would have to sew a yellow strip of cloth on the front of their clothes, while Christians would wear red badges and Zoroastrians would be forced to wear blue cloth.

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:38 AM | Comments (0)

May 17, 2006

NSA, Phone Records and Fox Press Secretaries

Crooks and Liars has a hilarious clip of Jon Stewart commenting on the NSA phone mining controversy. It is worth a listen. (C&L)

I read that the NSA is actually tapping only land lines, no cell phones. That means that they are missing almost all calls of folks under 60, except for businesses. Gee, I wonder how smart that is? Al Qaeda never would use cell phones, would they?

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:23 PM | Comments (0)

May 16, 2006

Chavez Sitting at the Poker Table

Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, is pulling out all the stops in countering U.S. pressure. (CNN)

In response to a U.S. ban on arms sales to President Hugo Chavez's government, Gen. Alberto Muller, a senior adviser to Chavez, told The Associated Press he had recommended to the defense minister that Venezuela consider selling the 21 jets to another country.

Muller said he thought it was worthwhile to consider "the feasibility of a negotiation with Iran for the sale of those planes."

Chavez is not content to play second string to the U.S. in anything. His actions indicate he is more than willing to set up a working, viable counterweight to U.S. influence in the region. I am sure that he also views Cuba as a paper tiger, no longer effective in confronting American power. He is more than willing to take up the cause.

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:45 PM | Comments (5)

May 5, 2006

A Clever Graphic on Iraq War Dead

Follow the link for a very powerful graphic depicting Iraq war dead. (Link)

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:11 PM | Comments (3)

Fox Cuts Back Across the Field

Earlier this week, the Mexican Congress passed a law that would have made Mexico one of the most permissive drug countries in the world. Yesterday Vincente Fox reversed direction, said he would not sign the bill and sent it back for revision. (AP)

Mexican President Vicente Fox backed off signing a drug decriminalization bill that the United States warned could result in "drug tourism" and increased availability of narcotics in American border communities.

Fox reversed course Wednesday and said he was sending the bill back to Congress for changes, just one day after his office had said he would sign it into law. The measure would have dropped criminal penalties for possession of small amounts of marijuana, cocaine, heroin and other drugs.

I wish I could get the phone logs of White House calls over the past couple of days. I would be content to see the ones to Mexico and specifically to Fox and his administration. I am sure George put incredible pressure on the Mexicans to reverse their decisions. The administration would hate to see Mexico change its policies. I think they are terrified that another approach to solving drug problems might work. One can only speculate why.

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:26 AM | Comments (2)

May 4, 2006

Priorities

Read this article then think about the priorities established by the White House. Why are we going to have our largest embassy in the world in Iraq? And 104 acres?

THE question puzzles and enrages a city: how is it that the Americans cannot keep the electricity running in Baghdad for more than a couple of hours a day, yet still manage to build themselves the biggest embassy on Earth?

Irritation grows as residents deprived of air-conditioning and running water three years after the US-led invasion watch the massive US Embassy they call “George W’s palace” rising from the banks of the Tigris.

In the pavement cafés, people moan that the structure is bigger than anything Saddam Hussein built. They are not impressed by the architects’ claims that the diplomatic outpost will be visible from space and cover an area that is larger than the Vatican city and big enough to accommodate four Millennium Domes. They are more interested in knowing whether the US State Department paid for the prime real estate or simply took it.

Bigger than the Vatican? Wow! I would guess that implies something about our long term plans for the country, doesn't it? And what about the big military bases we are building there?

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:53 AM | Comments (2)

May 3, 2006

You Start in the Little League Before Moving Up

Practice, practice, practice. You can never start playing early enough. (Ynet)

Three teenagers from the Arab town of Qalansawe were arrested after 150,000 detonators were found in the house of one of them. The teenagers, age 15 and 16 were taken to a police station for questioning where they claimed that the detonators meant for their personal use. (Raanan Ben-Zur)

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:50 AM | Comments (5)

May 2, 2006

Big Hits and Strike-outs

Iraqi recruits won't leave home. (WaPo)

Did the immigrant rally get a hit, or did they strike out? I can't tell. (CNA)

Afghan President Karzai swore in 20 new cabinet ministers (CNA)

Brand new New Orleans disaster plan ---- Get out of town! (CNN)

Some good clean fun trys to raise its average. (CNN)

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:11 PM | Comments (1)

Bolivia Rocks Major Corporations with a Body Slam Tackle

Bolivia nationalized the natural gas industry in their country, throwing capitalism and multi-national corporations for a big loss. The recently elected President of Bolivia, Evo Morales, indicated that this step was just the start of nationalizing various industries. CNN reports:

Bolivian President Evo Morales ordered the military to occupy nation's natural gas fields Monday after nationalizing the industry and threatening to expel foreign companies that do not recognize state control.

Bolivia has the second-largest natural gas reserves in South America after Venezuela, and disputes over how the impoverished country should manage those riches have sparked several popular revolts since 2003.....

YPFB will pay foreign companies for their services, offering about 50 percent of the value of production, although the decree indicated that companies at the country's two largest gas fields would get just 18 percent.

Top investors in Bolivia's gas industry include Petrobras -- which controls more than 45 percent of Bolivia's gas fields -- Spain's Repsol YPF, France's Total and British gas and oil producer BG Group. YPFB alone has no way of financing the development of gas fields.

Bolivia is the poorest country in South America. It is understandable that they would seek ways to increase income. Seeing multi-nationals get rich off their natural resources obviously creates anger and resentment. However, the country is going to have a difficult time attracting investments from outside the country if it will not recognize previous obligations, contracts, and laws. If I had a company I would be exceedingly wary of investingn in Bolivia. I would certainly not put money into a country that would take all my work, materials and time without proper payment.

The devil is in the details. What, if anything, will Bolivia pay to the companies? That is still unclear. Perhaps they will pack up and pull everything out of the country, leaving the government on its own. Maybe the President will get Chinese or Russian companies to replace them. It is too soon to tell how this will play out.

The move is similar to what is happening in other South American countries, like Venezuala. The lower classes are revolting against large corporations and western interests, including the U.S. government, to gain greater control of their economy, and thereby reap some financial rewards. It will certainly be interesting to watch how far the revolution spreads.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:52 AM | Comments (0)

April 24, 2006

There Are Many Nasty Players in the World Game

Robert D. Kaplan, national correspondent for The Atlantic, writes a provocative article on threats to the U.S. in yesterday's Washington Post. (WaPo)

We are entering a well-armed world, with more players than ever who can unhinge the international system and who have fewer reasons to be afraid of us. That's why a resentful state leader, armed with disruptive technologies and ready to make use of stateless terrorists, poses such a threat.....

We face a world of unfriendly regimes, even as our European allies are compromised by burgeoning Muslim populations and the Russians and Chinese deal amicably with dictators, because they have no interest in a state's moral improvement. Never before have we needed a more unified military-diplomatic approach to foreign policy. For the future is a multidimensional game of containment.

If you agree with his contentions, then it is no time for the U.S. to follow a single line of attack. We must diversify our offense and defense, employing every conceivable tactic. Conventional military options are not enough to stop new threats.

Posted by Chip Spear at 5:06 PM | Comments (1)

April 22, 2006

Playing With Iran

As we engage more with Iran, over Iraq, terrorism and nuclear development, we should keep in mind that they are not playing the same game, or at least they are not playing by the same rules. If you read the TNR article linked in my post yesterday, you will know that the Iranian leadership has a very different perception of human life. They were, and still are, more than willing to send tens of thousands of young children to their death, clearing minefields and acting as a first attack wave against enemy combatants. We, on the other hand, go crazy when our death toll crosses 2000 soldiers. The major media reports every casualty on the nightly news.

Sit down at the table and play poker. How far are we willing to go? Iran is willing to suffer huge death tolls, we are not. How do you bluff? What do they want that we have? Why should they give up their nuclear program? Do you think they really care about our threats? Would an attack on their nuclear facilities really stop their program? We don't even seem to know where many of their labs and factories are, since many are underground or dispersed around the country. If we did attack they would probably respond with terrorist attacks against the U.S. Are we ready for malls, busses, trains, and packed stadiums to explode? I doubt it. In a game of chicken they seem to have a better hand.

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:45 AM | Comments (0)

April 21, 2006

Read this and let me know if you think we can negotiate with Iran?

A chilling analysis of Iran and its current leader. (TNR)

It would be wise to keep this in mind when trying to "negotiate."

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:46 PM | Comments (3)

Very Interesting Article on Threat to U.S. Navy

I have read numerous articles in recent years about a Russian rocket torpedo that supposedly has the capability of traveling over 200 knots underwater. Iran recently announced that it had a sonar evading torpedo, similar in nature. Read the analysis of the threat. The article is long and fairly technical, but well worth the read. (MIL)

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:03 PM | Comments (1)

April 17, 2006

Dirty Player Needs Bath

When you play a tough game you get a little dirty. This little article is amusing and disgusting.

When Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad got an anonymous text message suggesting he didn't wash enough, he did not take it lying down.

He fired the president of the phone company, had four people arrested, took other legal action and accused those involve of conspiring with the Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad, according to the Iranian opposition website Rooz Online.

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:17 PM | Comments (2)

April 1, 2006

April Fools

It is late on Saturday night, April 1st, April Fools Day. So yesterday, in my video I said to stop by and I would let you know my April Fools joke for this year. Do you know? Well, we have been fooled, most all of us. The joke, unfortunately is on us. And who pulled off one of the biggest jokes on the world? Our Illustrious Leader (OIL), G. W. Bush. Oh, how partisan you say, so left wing. Perhaps, but consider; a war based on lies costing at least a trillion dollars, thousands of deaths, tens of thousands of injuries that are not properly cared for because of budget cuts, absolutely huge budget deficits, increasing income disparaties between the rich and poor, mismanagement throughout the government, a joke of a Department of Homeland Security, the New Orleans disaster, a mounting energy crisis that the administration refuses to adequately address, serious education issues related to "No child left behind", a medicare prescription drug program that helps only the drug companies and no one understands, global warming that "needs more study" as the ice caps melt, Osama bin Laden still running around Afghanistan, Islamic fundamentalism growing throughout the Middle East, Iran and North Korea developing nuclear weapons and supporting terrorists, the country becoming increasingly politically and culturally polarized, lobbyists controlling our government, a President ignoring laws on whim, illegal wiretaps, leaking the name of CIA agents.....I could go on, but you get the idea. America voted him into office. The joke is on his supporters and unfortunately the rest of us, who failed to defeat him....twice.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:29 PM | Comments (2)

March 30, 2006

Good Analysis of the Iran Sanctions Game

Carne Ross presents us with a good analysis of some of the issues surrounding Iran, nukes and sanctions in the Washington Post. (WaPo)

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:48 PM | Comments (1)

Immigration Game Update

We are still early in the first quarter of this game, but the play is hot, fun-filled and furious. Check out the video.

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:20 PM | Comments (1)

March 28, 2006

Player of the Week - 3/27 - Kim Jong Il

Kim Jong Il wins this week's Political Sports Player of the Week Award. President Kim, fearless leader of North Korea said that North Korea now has the ability to launch a preemptive strike against its enemies (AP)

North Korea suggested Tuesday it had the ability to launch a pre-emptive attack on the United States, according to the North's official news agency. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said the North had built atomic weapons to counter the U.S. nuclear threat.

"As we declared, our strong revolutionary might put in place all measures to counter possible U.S. pre-emptive strike," the spokesman said, according to the Korean Central News Agency. "Pre-emptive strike is not the monopoly of the United States."

You have to hand it to the little man. He might be crazy, but no denying that he has guts.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:02 AM | Comments (0)

March 26, 2006

Iran Continues to Bob and Weave

Iran continues to bob and weave around the nuclear issue, saying it supports the Russian and Chinese approach to resolving the conflict.(CNA)

Iran "supports and is happy with the position (of Russia and China) in favour of pursuing negotiations in a bid to find a solution acceptable to all parties and examination of the (nuclear) question under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency" (IAEA), Irna quoted Mottaki as saying.

The UN Security Council has attempted in vain to agree on a deadline for Tehran to comply with IAEA demands to abandon all activities linked to the enrichment of uranium.

Ducking, bobbing, sliding from side to side, evading punches from the west, seems like a prefectly fine defense to me. If I were the Iranians I would be doing the same thing. I would also work on getting anyone who was economically, or potentially economically dependent on me to play on my team, like for example Russia and China.

Russia, backed by China, insists on the Security Council playing a supporting role to the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog, and rejects any deadline which appears like an ultimatum linked to possible sanctions.

Lavrov said Friday that Moscow could not accept any decision on Iran reached by Western powers without prior consultation with Russia.

Russia's economic links with Iran grew substantially over the past couple of years.(AxisGlobal)

volume of trade in the last year grew by 43 per cent compared to 2003, and exceeded $2 billion. As examples of a fruitful bilateral cooperation, the Russian diplomat mentioned the nuclear reactor in Busher the telecommunications satellite "Zohre (Venus,) and joint projects within the framework of the International Transport Corridor

China is in the same position. (ISN)

In mid-February 2006, amid controversy over Iran's nuclear research program, China and Iran announced an energy deal potentially worth US$100 billion. According to the agreement, state-owned China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, will develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field, and China agreed to buy from Iran ten million tons of liquefied natural gas per year for 25 years beginning in 2009. Sinopec would assume a 51 percent stake in the field, expected to produce 300,000 barrels per day, with 29 percent going to India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (O.N.G.C.) and the remaining 20 percent to either Iranian firms or another foreign company such as Royal Dutch Shell.

This deal is the latest and most significant step in economic relations between the two states. Trade between China and Iran increased from US$1.2 billion in 1998 to US$7.5 billion in 2004, and jumped to US$9.5 billion in 2005. China currently imports about 13 percent of its oil from Iran alone and, as consumption continues to rise, will be increasingly reliant on foreign oil.

Given the economic links it should be no surprise that the Chinese and Russians are reluctant to agree to any sanctions. They each have too much at stake. I am curious how this will play out.

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:01 PM | Comments (1)

March 23, 2006

Deal Me In, Boys

Kim Jong Il....the guy cracks me up. Crazy,yes....Nuts, probably....Egomaniac, yes...dangerous, most definitely. That man is determined to be a major player on the world stage. I have mentioned this more than once. The AP reports today:

"As we declared, our strong revolutionary might put in place all measures to counter possible U.S. pre-emptive strike," the spokesman said, according to the Korean Central News Agency. "Pre-emptive strike is not the monopoly of the United States."

Given the fact that the U.S. called North Korea one of the three members of the "Axis of Evil", invaded one of them to supposedly destroy their WMD and is making noises about the other, it makes perfect sense that Kim would want nukes to protect himself from the U.S. In addition I am sure he figures that if the U.S. is breaking the Nuclear Non-Profliferation Treaty when it suits its purposes, well then, he should have the same right.

The man wants to be a major player. He wants to play poker with the big boys in the region. I sense the only way that will happen is if he has his weapons and occasionally threatens to use them.

Posted by Chip Spear at 5:43 PM | Comments (0)

March 21, 2006

Sharia Keeps On The Offensive

We should never forget who and what we are dealing with. (ABC)

Despite the overthrow of the fundamentalist Taliban government and the presence of 22,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, a man who converted to Christianity is being prosecuted in Kabul, and a judge said Sunday that if convicted, he faces the death penalty.

Abdul Rahman, who is in his 40s, says he converted to Christianity 16 years ago while working as an aid worker helping Afghan refugees in Pakistan.

Relatives denounced him as a convert during a custody battle over his children, and he was arrested last month. The prosecutor says Rahman was found with a Bible.

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:23 PM | Comments (0)

March 16, 2006

Muslims Keep Hammering at Western Civil Rights

The NY Times reported today that the Dutch developed a film meant to inform immigrants about what life is like in the Netherlands, a very liberal society, with nude beaches, gay rights and permissive drug laws. (NYT)

"People do not make a fuss about nudity," the narrator explains.

That lesson, about the Netherlands' nude beaches, is followed by another: homosexuals have the same rights here as heterosexuals do, including the chance to marry.

Just to make sure everyone gets the message, two men are shown kissing in a meadow.

The scenes are brief parts of a two-hour-long film that the Dutch government has compiled to help potential immigrants, many of them from Islamic countries, meet the demands of a new entrance examination that went into effect on Wednesday. In the exam, candidates must prove they can speak some Dutch and are at least aware of the Netherlands' liberal values, even if they do not agree with all of them.

Opponents of the tightening immigration policies have pointed to the film - a DVD contained in a package of study materials for the new exam - as an attempt by the government to discourage applicants from Islamic countries who may be offended by its content.

Critics are slugging away at the government, saying they are trying to stop Muslim immigration. This is clearly another attempt on the part of Muslims to look in the long term, immigrate into European countries, then get those countries to implement laws more in keeping with Sharia. The Netherlands has already had substantial problems with new immigrants in this regard.

Policy makers say they are concerned about an estimated 600,000 immigrants already here who do not speak proper Dutch. Poor housing and high unemployment among minority groups is contributing to ethnic tensions in some of the largest cities, where incidents of violence against Jews and homosexuals have raised new concerns.

We should all be aware that this is a major problem which will not soon disappear.

Posted by Chip Spear at 1:11 PM | Comments (1)

U.S. On the Defensive

Are we really that afraid to stand up for our rights of free speech? The editor of the University of Illinois paper was fired for publishing the controversial Muslim cartoons. (CNN)

The Illini Media Co. board of directors, which comprises students and faculty, voted unanimously to fire the editor after a review "found that Gorton violated Daily Illini policies about thoughtful discussion of and preparation for the publication of inflammatory material," according to a statement.

Gorton has said he sought out advice from The Daily Illini's former editor-in-chief and others before deciding to run the cartoons. He has said that accusations he tried to hide his decision were wrong.

Controversial? Yes. Insulting? It depends on one's perspective. The newspaper should report news, even if it is controversial. In fact it is more important when it is controversial. And that means actually publishing the cartoons in question. This sort of act only gives power to those who want to control what others say, write or do.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:29 AM | Comments (1)

March 14, 2006

Read the Muslim Game Plan

There are too many examples of the Muslims plan for violence against Western society. You can read another here.

..."The whole approach towards Muslim militants was based on appeasement. 7/7 proved that that approach does not work - yet it is still being followed. For example, there is a book, The Noble Koran: a New Rendering of its Meaning in English, which is openly available in Muslim bookshops.

"It calls for the killing of Jews and Christians, and it sets out a strategy for killing the infidels and for warfare against them. The Government has done nothing whatever to interfere with the sale of that book.

"Why not? Government ministers have promised to punish religious hatred, to criminalise the glorification of terrorism, yet they do nothing about this book, which blatantly does both."

Perhaps the explanation is just that they do not take it seriously. "I fear that is exactly the problem," says Dr Sookhdeo. "The trouble is that Tony Blair and other ministers see Islam through the prism of their own secular outlook.

They simply do not realise how seriously Muslims take their religion. Islamic clerics regard themselves as locked in mortal combat with secularism...

One of these days the governments in the West will begin to tell people the truth about the threat within their own communities. Let's hope it is soon, because the fundamentalists are on the march.

Posted by Chip Spear at 4:08 PM | Comments (1)

March 5, 2006

Don't Cha Love These Guys

I love reading about Iran. They are a never-ending source of amusement. They continually come up with something that strains credibility, but somehow makes sense to them. Their President denies the holocaust, then he wants to wipe Israel off the map. And now, after lying about developing nuclear weapons and breaking agreements, they say, "Well, even though we lied, and we broke these agreements, and will continue to break our agreements, if you try to punish us, we are going to screw you any and every way we can. (CNN)

The only downside is that these people are nuts and a lot of folks could eventually die because of these idiots. However, they do make the news interesting.

Posted by Chip Spear at 5:57 PM | Comments (0)

March 3, 2006

Cartoonists are Still in Hiding

The Cartoonists in Denmark who participated in the Mohammed uproar are still afraid for their lives, five months after publication. Please refer to my post below, where I urge that the War on Terror be renamed. We are at war and this is serious stuff. These people clearly threaten our culture for the worse. You can read more here.

Four months after the cartoons were published, the Police Intelligence Service still doesn’t think it’s safe for the cartoonists to live in the open in Denmark.

They are therefore still under police protection at secret addresses. From sources near to the cartoonists, Dagbladet.no is informed that some of them are receiving help from a psychologist to them deal with the situation.

"None of them had thought that their cartoons would create such a worldwide ruckus," the source says.

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:46 PM | Comments (0)

March 2, 2006

Terrorism and Islam

Why do we continue to insist we are engaged in a "War on Terror"? Terror is a psychological state, it is not a political entity, it is not group or a movement. Terrorism is a means, an offensive tool of war. It is a strategy designed to further political goals of a group or state. We are not waging a war on terror. That would be like saying that The New England Patriots are waging a war on the forward pass, or the Yankees are waging war on fast balls. What we are waging is a war against Islamic fundamentalists. So the better question might be why does the adminitration insist on calling it a War on Terror? Is it because the President does not want to alienate so-called "moderate Muslims"?

And perhaps we should change our definition of Islam from a religion to a political organization, or at least create a new category of political religion, since Islam does not respect individual rights, still advocates dhimma and is intent on conquering the world. In the West it uses the label of religion to protect itself from reactions to its political policies. Mosques, protected as religious sites, can easily be a center for what we in the West would consider political activity. Islam uses civil rights as a defense to further goals which would ultimately destroy our system of civil rights. It is a clever tactic, using the very thing defining who we are against us. It reminds me of Judo, defined by Wikipedia as "the principle of using one's opponent's strength against him and adapting well to changing circumstances". Muslims use whatever definition will help them further their intent, which is the expansion of Islam. The Koran does not differentiate religion and politics, that distinction exists in the West. There is no separation of church and state. It is more a case of c/s/h/t/u/a/r/t/c/e/h instead of church/state where the two are integrated and inseparable.

I don't want to oversimplify what is a complex issue, one could easily write a dissertation on Islam and politics or the distinctions between religion and politics. What I do suggest is that Islam does not define itself the way the West defines religious and political entities. Islam contends that they are part of the same thing. One would be blind not to see how religious leaders control governments, militias and armies throughout the Middle East. Osama's war is based on religion, not politics. The House of Saud is definitely not secular. The riots over the cartoons were religious in nature. Muslim rioters wanted the West to restrict free speech. Muslims wanted to ban any speech deemed anti-Islam by Muslims.

If the West is serious about winning this so-called War on Terror it should probably clarify its goals and define them for the players, meaning the people who believe in the foundation of Western Civilization, like civil rights, sexual equality, freedom of thought and especially freedom of religion without persecution or any sort.

Posted by Chip Spear at 4:47 PM | Comments (1)

March 1, 2006

The Islamic Threat

The Islamic threat is real, and moderates, wherever they are, do not appear to be up to the challenge of stopping the fundamentalists. I would highly recommend reading this article. The sooner we are aware of the real threat, the better off we will all be. The Koran does not believe in religious diversity or individual religious freedom without serious consequences. It is a religion of domination; religious, political, cultural and philisophical.

Posted by Chip Spear at 5:05 PM | Comments (0)

February 28, 2006

When Does It Become a Civil War in Iraq?

More than a few news sources are suggesting that Iraq is on the brink of Civil War. (AP) I would like to know how they define that point? What has to happen and when, before one concludes that it is in fact a civil war? I really don't know. Wikipedia states:

A civil war is a war in which the parties within the same country or empire struggle for national control of state power. As in any war, the conflict may be over other matters such as religion, ethnicity, or distribution of wealth. Some civil wars are also categorized as revolutions when major societal restructuring is a possible outcome of the conflict. An insurgency, whether successful or not, is likely to be classified as a civil war by some historians if, and only if, organized armies fight conventional battles. Other historians state the criteria for a civil war is that there must be prolonged violence between organized factions or defined regions of a country (conventionally fought or not).

Posted by Chip Spear at 6:42 PM | Comments (3)

February 24, 2006

Al Qaeda Hits A Massive Grand Slam

Extremists on every side must take a certain glee in the recent attack on the Al-Askariya "Golden Mosque" in Samarra. The situation is obviously dangerous and extremely complex. The US and voices of moderation appear to be losers right now, or at least they are far behind on the scoreboard. I listed some bulletpoints of my thoughts at the moment

Al Qaeda gets chaos it desires. It would rather have a Sunni country.
They can establish training ground
They don't want a western oriented democracy
Neither do other monarchist states, like Saudi Arabia.

U. S. loses if there is a civil war

Shiites is losing control of the government
Shiites blame the US for not protecting the mosque
Shiites mad at US because they think they are siding with Sunnis in formation of government.
Shiites think they deserve to control government and have been unwilling to compromise which infuriates Sunnis
Shiites attack Sunnis for attacking mosque
Radical Shiites like al-Sadr gain more power

Sunnis blame US for not protecting them from Shiite reprisals
Sunnis pull out of coalition government
Sunnis already angry that Shiite militias and police forces are targeting, killing and torturing Sunnis
Many more Sunnis support insurgents after Shiite reprisals

Kurds sit and watch, eventually moving to secure oil fields in the north. They want control of the fields in case of a civil war
Iran - Influence grows with Iraqi Shiites in a civil war
Iran blames the US for letting Iraq descend into civil war
US might be more inclined to leave Iraq sooner in event of civil war, which again increases Iran's power in the region.

This is quite disastrous for the US.

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:00 PM | Comments (0)

February 20, 2006

Maybe This Guy Plays for the Muslims

A British historian is sentenced to three years in prison for denying the Holocaust (AP)

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:42 PM | Comments (3)

The West Clearly on the Defensive in Cartoon Controversy

The Muslim world is on the attack, and from all accounts is doing exceedingly well. With election victories in Palestine and Iran, growing influence in Egypt and riots and demonstrations all over the world to list, the West finds itself questioning its actions, motives and policies seeking to mollify any and all policies inciting Muslim anger. The response of many westerners is to call for calm, to reach out to Islamic moderates, engage in dialogue, to ask westerners to be more considerate when they joke or criticize the Muslim religion or mores. Basically they are asking that people in the west practice self-censorship.

Self censorship is not necessarily bad, we do it all the time. We don't insult people at work, we don't tell wives or girlfriends they are overweight. We don't tell our best friends that something they did or are planning to do is not a good idea. We don't tell people that many of their opinions are stupid, whites don't use the word nigger, when many blacks do and we usually practice a certain amount of restraint rather than make some dumb sexist, cultural remark or joke. I am sure you do this all the time. I know that many times when I workout at my pool I see many ways that other swimmers can improve their strokes. Do I criticize them, or even make a suggestion that they something? Almost never, I keep my mouth shut.

So one might ask how this is different, which I think it clearly is. We are engaged in a war, both physically in Iraq and Afghanistan and culturally against Islam. You might think that this is harsh and extreme, but events would suggest otherwise. The publisher of the cartoons states yesterday in the Washington Post. (WaPo)

I commissioned the cartoons in response to several incidents of self-censorship in Europe caused by widening fears and feelings of intimidation in dealing with issues related to Islam....

Our goal was simply to push back self-imposed limits on expression that seemed to be closing in tighter.

At the end of September, a Danish standup comedian said in an interview with Jyllands-Posten that he had no problem urinating on the Bible in front of a camera, but he dared not do the same thing with the Koran....

So, over two weeks we witnessed a half-dozen cases of self-censorship, pitting freedom of speech against the fear of confronting issues about Islam. This was a legitimate news story to cover, and Jyllands-Posten decided to do it by adopting the well-known journalistic principle: Show, don't tell....

We have a tradition of satire when dealing with the royal family and other public figures, and that was reflected in the cartoons. The cartoonists treated Islam the same way they treat Christianity, Buddhism, Hinduism and other religions. And by treating Muslims in Denmark as equals they made a point: We are integrating you into the Danish tradition of satire because you are part of our society, not strangers. The cartoons are including, rather than excluding, Muslims.

The cartoons do not in any way demonize or stereotype Muslims. In fact, they differ from one another both in the way they depict the prophet and in whom they target. One cartoon makes fun of Jyllands-Posten, portraying its cultural editors as a bunch of reactionary provocateurs. Another suggests that the children's writer who could not find an illustrator for his book went public just to get cheap publicity. A third puts the head of the anti-immigration Danish People's Party in a lineup, as if she is a suspected criminal....

On occasion, Jyllands-Posten has refused to print satirical cartoons of Jesus, but not because it applies a double standard. In fact, the same cartoonist who drew the image of Muhammed with a bomb in his turban drew a cartoon with Jesus on the cross having dollar notes in his eyes and another with the star of David attached to a bomb fuse. There were, however, no embassy burnings or death threats when we published those.

One must remember that Mohammed was a warrior, leading armies, conquering and killing other tribes and cultures. He demanded subservience. Many times his opponents were killed. His religion was a means of control. Jesus did not lead armies, rule an empire or advocate killing, neither did Buddha. We are dealing with a different beast here. If you want to read some interesting analysis of Islam you might try "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam" by Robert Spencer. Islam is not a religion of tolerance as we see by the reactions to the cartoons and the pressure more and more European communities feel. Modern Islam must condemn the calls for violence of any sort when anyone writes, speaks or acts in a way which "insults" the Muslim faith. That type of intolerance is completely unacceptable in a democratic society.

Unless truly moderate, modern Muslims accept secular societies where each individual is able to practice his own religion, we are in for a very bad time, we will truly have a clash of cultures. If you think this is overblown, think again. The Telegraph reports that 40% of British Muslims want sharia law introduced into parts of Britain. (Telegraph) Any religion that advocates killing someone for what they say, draw, paint, or write needs to disappear. Any religion that does not respect an individual's basic human rights needs to disappear. Any religion that does not treat other races, or sexes as equals needs to disappear. Any religion which desires to subjugate or eliminate other religions needs to disappear. Any religion which forbids people from practicing any other religion needs to disappear. We do not need hate, anger, arrogance or power to be the controlling "drug" of any religious institution, whether it is Christian, Jewish, Islamic, Buddhist, Hindi, or whatever.

From a strategic perspective the West is on the defensive. If it is to survive this religious onslaught it will have to stand up and say no. No to intolerance, no to all the things that begin to restrict the things that make the West what it is, the dirty, messy, insulting, empowering, silly, wonderful acts of freedom. It should never, ever apologize, considering the nature of the opposition, where religion is a tool of domination and war.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:02 AM | Comments (1)

February 10, 2006

The "Turn Us Into Them" Strategy - Cartoons 2

Make no mistake, we are involved in a war, sometimes it manifests itself in terrorist violence and sometimes it manifests itself in cultural confrontation. On the one side is a messy, unfocused, moving in a million different direction democratic society that purports to respect people's opinions to the point where one can do and say just about anything. That anything includes making slanderous statements, making fun of racial groups, ethnic groups and religions. That is what makes us who we are.

On the other side is a culture that is theocratic, dictatorial, sexist, uncompromising, racist and in its more extreme manifestations more than willing to kill those it disagrees with. That culture is currently on the war path. It is attacking us in every way it can, using our own diversity and openness against us whenever it has an opportunity. If a person or newspaper publishes something contorversial, no matter how small or insignificant, Muslim fundamentalists use it to inflame the passions of their team. It is a simple tactic solidifying an "us versus them" mentality. They want the people of the region to see themselves under attack. In addition, the extremists are trying to get Western cultures to submit to their value systems.

It is hypocritical for Westerners to apologize for the very thing that makes our culture what it is, with all its warts. We value diversity, and as hard as it is, we also value the right of people to say and do outrageous and insulting things. For us to condemn it and/or begin to morally restrict it begins a process of turning us into that which we truly do not respect, which is that fundamentalist attitude.

We are certainly aware of the physical threat that Muslim fundamentalists pose to the West. I am not so sure that we are aware of how they intend to expand the playing field to include a cultural assult as well. I certainly hope that we are more prepared for that one than the other. As fundamentalist political movements in Muslim countries gain strength, e.g. Iran, Palestine, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, we should be aware that they will use their influence and power to move beyond their own borders and into the west. The growing immigrant communities throughout Western Europe provide a fertile breeding ground. As more Muslims move into Europe it will be even easier for clerics to push disgrunted immigrants to pressure their governments into making concessions to Islamic mores, including the restriction of freedoms of the press and speech. In such a scenario they definitely win.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:50 AM | Comments (3)

February 9, 2006

Cartoons - 1

Read "Standing Up To Bullies" on Andrew Sullivan's blog here

He hits the nail on the head. It is becoming increasingly clear that the Muslim faith is exceedingly destructive to anything approaching modern sensibilities about gender, civil rights, religion, open mindedness and an ability to laugh at oneself. Not that the West doesn't have some problems of its own. However the extremists who are rising to power in so many areas are truly a danger. The fundamentalists are using a strategy of political blackmail to force the West to accede to their demands and live under their rules. There is no room for compromise here, no grey area. It is an either/or situation. The West should collectively tell these idiots to take a hike.

Posted by Chip Spear at 5:24 PM | Comments (3)

February 6, 2006

Al Qaeda Terrorist Slips Away to Score Again

Why is this story about the escape of the Al Qaeda mastermind from a Yemeni prison not a surprise. I am sure he will high tail it to Iraq to help out in the current Al Qaeda party.

Posted by Chip Spear at 6:13 PM | Comments (1)

Islam Slams Hard to the Face

Excellent thoughts on Islamic threat here.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:31 AM | Comments (0)

February 2, 2006

Muslims Attack Concept of Democracy and Free Speech

Many Muslim governments, political organizations, religious groups and cultural entities recently struck at Western media and governments for their support of democratic ideals of free speech. Specifically they protested the publication of a group of cartoons in a small Danish newspaper called Jyllands-Posten. Several other newspapers have since published the cartoons as well. The cartoons have sparked outrage because of their derogatory view of Muhammed. Muslems are insulted and want an apology from the newspaper, Western governments and anyone else they don't like.

Robert Menard, the secretary general of Reporters Without Borders, a Paris-based body that monitors media developments, said in a telephone interview: "All countries in Europe should be behind the Danes and Danish authorities to defend the principle that a newspaper can write what it wishes to, even if it offends people.

"I understand that it may shock Muslims, but being shocked is part of the price of being informed."

On Wednesday, Syria became the latest Arab country to withdraw its ambassador from Denmark, saying publication of the cartoons "constitutes a violation of the sacred principles of hundreds of millions of Arabs and Muslims," according to SANA, the Syrian state news agency.

Maybe they will score by getting the West to change its ways through political means. However if they do so we turn into what they are, closed minded, arrogant, paranoid, societies who have no respect for individuals, what they think or what they might want. No wonder the Middle East is such a mess.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:12 AM | Comments (1)

January 30, 2006

Nah, Nah, Nah, Nah, Nah

You can't catch me.

Al Qaeda's number two is standing behind a tree, taunting Bush, teasing him, over and over again. You can't catch me, you are a loser, you're a liar, you're bad luck. If American's die, it is your fault. (CNN)

Al-Zawahiri directs a message to President Bush.

"My first message is to the butcher of Washington, Bush: You are not just defeated and lying about it, but you are, with God's help, a loser. You are bad luck to your people. You brought them disasters and catastrophes, and you will bring them even more disasters."

Al-Zawahiri also taunts the U.S. president, saying, "Bush, do you know where I am? I am among the Muslim masses enjoying their care with God's blessings and sharing with them their holy war against you until we defeat you, God willing."

Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah you can't catch me...........and off he goes into the night.

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:57 PM | Comments (2)

Player of the Week, Jan. 30, 2006 - Mahmoud al-Zahar

This week's Political Player of the Week Award has to go to the alledged leader of Hamas, Mahmoud al-Zahar. (Alleged because Hamas will not officially announce a leader for fear he will be assassinated by Israel) The upset win in last week's Palestinian elections certainly ranks as one of the bigger surprises in the crazy world of Mid-East politics. Over the past few years Hamas has carefully expanded its support by filling the void left by Fatah politicians. Not only have they led the terrorist fight against Israel, but they have played a significant role in providing needed services for the poor. By providing food and educational support they showed many Palestinians that they care about more than just the destruction of their neighbor.

Their political strategy appealed not only to Palestinians anger, but their hearts, minds and stomachs, which is far more than the Fatah accomplished over the past decade. Rather than addressing the needs of their constituents, the Fatah leadership seemed more concerned with laundering aid money into personal Swiss bank accounts. This left the playing field to Hamas. Under the leadership of Mahmoud al-Zahar they took advantage in ever way imaginable and scored big time. Many political analysts recognized that Hamas was a force with the people, but no one, not Israeli intelligence, the CIA, western scholars, or news media knew the depth of that support. Mahmoud deserves this week's Political Sports Award.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:33 AM | Comments (4)

January 29, 2006

Politics and Money

U.S. Internet companies are relucant to participate in Congressional briefings about their business dealings with the Chinese government. The issue is restriction of Internet searches and the tracking of data.

The firms were asked to attend the February 1 briefing by the Congressional Human Rights Caucus following uproar caused by search giant Google's decision last week to censor websites and content banned by China's propaganda chiefs.

"We have heard from Microsoft that no representative from the company will attend the briefing. So, with Cisco Systems, this makes two companies that have confirmed they're opting out," Lynne Weil, spokeswoman for caucus co-chairman Democratic Representative Tom Lantos (news, bio, voting record), told AFP.

As the briefing date gets closer, "others are still unfortunately keeping us in suspense," she said. "It is mystifying why these companies would not want to take part after all this is an opportunity to clear their names," Weil said.

Google agreed to censor websites and content in its search service launched Wednesday in China.

The move followed similar actions by rivals Microsoft and Yahoo in cooperating with Chinese censorship.

From a business strategy, this is a losing proposition for the Internet companies. Why is it in their financial interests to comply? I am sure that they might get some negative feedback from various human rights groups and maybe some politicians, but the longer term impact by backing out of China is far more consequencial. It is a huge market, which they could easily lose if they leave. In addition, there is the hypocritical position of many critics in that they currently support hundreds of companies who are doing business in China. Thousands if not millions of Americans buy products made in China, a place that does not pay proper wages or necessarily comply with acceptable safety and environmental standards. Where is the protest about this? I am sure the same Internet companies see this hypocrisy and think it better to keep their mouths shut. The strategy is financial not necessarily ethical. The way they score is by making money. They all seem to view the current strategy as being more benefial to their own game than that played by the politicians. In addition, I have never seen a business plan that indicated Google is required to provide every single person in the world access to every piece of information they desire.

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:15 PM | Comments (1)

January 26, 2006

Google Plays China

The recent controversy about Google restricting its search results in China makes me think that people should get a grip. Google is a business, not a non-profit working on human rights issues, nor a government entity. It's purpose is to make money within the rule of law. Google turned down U.S. government requests for information on searches in the U.S. because it felt the government action was outside the law. This is not the case with China. Yes, it would be great if Google could transact business in the same way it does here, however we are not talking about torture or killing, we are talking about a very limited amount of information. Google wants to be a part of the huge Chinese market, as do many other American businesses. They act within Chinese laws. I think most people think China will get more democratic over time. Google wants to be a player in the market as that happens. They certainly don't want to be an outsider looking at other companies making huge amounts of money, controlling the market, while they wait until the Chinese government allows a specified list of search terms.

We should not forget a journey starts with one small step.

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:07 PM | Comments (0)

Hamas Hits a Grand Slam

What a real surprise. I don't think anyone really expected Hamas to actually win a majority in yesterday's Palestinian elections. And now that they have, the question that is everywhere in the media is, "Now what?" War? Peace? Stalemate? Higher walls? More terrorism? More targeted Israeli strikes? Uneasy truce? Ah, if I could only see into the future, I would be a very rich man. From a strategic standpoint I doubt that Hamas wants to commit suicide. I doubt that they will be too blatant in advocating Israel's destruction now that they are running the country. They know that Israel has the guns and army to inflict an amazing amount to physical destruction. Israel can also tighten the borders to make it very hard for Hamas to strike back. It will not be impossible, but hard. Over time, if no one is too stupid, the reality of governing a country will change their policy. Many Palestinians rely on Israel for their livelihood. They need Israel. If they can't work and can't trade, Hamas will have serious internal problems. I feel that eventually they will begin a slowly reach out to the Israelis. How it manifests itself is anyone's guess. Is this assured? No, but it seems a reasonable course of action. There are many other variables here, including Al Qaeda and Iran getting involved in the mix, but I think that the potential for serious damage by Israel will preclude them from being too influential.

These issues are further complicated by the uncertainty in Israel with Sharon's stroke. So much is up in the air. We don't know who is going to lead Israel and what policies they will implement. Will they continue to withdraw settlements or reverse course? Will they attack Hamas if terrorism continues? If so, to what degree? We don't know how Hamas will combine its radical past with governing a country. So many questions and so few answers.

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:39 AM | Comments (0)

January 25, 2006

Mid-East Peace Talks - One Confusing Game

With Hamas winning 40% of yesterday's vote, and Sharon out for the count with his stroke, we are looking at one confusing game in the Middle East. It is unclear what is going on in Israel with the peace plan. Since Sharon was the main driver of the offense, no one knows what will happen until after their elections. Will the Israelis continue to withdraw from occupied territories, will they strengthen existing settlements or even build more? We don't know.

Hamas advocates the destruction of Israel and they now play a major role in the official government. Granted, they said little preceding the election to remind the world of their violent past, but they haven't renounced it. What can we expect from the Palestinians? Peace? War? More terrorism? These are interesting times.

Posted by Chip Spear at 4:28 PM | Comments (0)

January 24, 2006

I Can Only Laugh

Iran threatens to accelerate their nuclear enrichment program if they are referred to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions. (AP) Here is a government that is caught lying and cheating about their nuclear program. When confronted they essentially say, "Fuck You". Turn us in to the cops and were going to really screw you. Can the rest of the world make them stop? Will they? How?

Soltaniyeh, in comments to The Associated Press, warned against referral, suggesting such a "hasty decision" would backfire.

Whether Iran's suspension of its full-scale enrichment program remains in effect "depends on the decision of Feb. 2," he said. If the board votes for referral, he said, Iran would resume efforts to fully develop its nascent enrichment activities.

Iran insists its nuclear ambitions do not go beyond wanting to generate fuel, but concerns are growing that its focus is on making nuclear weapons.

These guys are playing a tough game. They are very good. If we were playing poker I would say they are calling our bluff. How do you want to play it?

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:49 PM | Comments (0)

January 19, 2006

Well, Look at This

Shortly after I posted my analysis of Iran I found this.

"In case of sanctions, other countries will suffer as well as Iran," Oil Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari said, according to the official news agency, IRNA.

"One of the consequences will be the unleashing of a crisis in the oil sector and particularly a price hike."

Iran, the number two oil exporter in OPEC with oil revenue last year of 42 billion dollars, risks being referred to the United Nations Security Council over what the West suspects is a covert nuclear weapons drive.

I sure am glad that Bush/Cheney announced an all out research and development program for alternative fuels, U.S. energy independence, and gas and oil conservation. Because of their program, we will be able to ignore economic blackmail and prevent them from pursuing their nuclear program and blowing up Israel.....:-)

Posted by Chip Spear at 4:19 PM | Comments (1)

Iran - What Now?

The situation and strategies

Iran ------
Ambitious, Arrogant Leadership
Wants to lead the Muslim World
Exceptionally rich
Hates the West
Wants to destroy Israel
Leadership doesn't travel
Occupies a geographically important position relative to shipping and oil
Educated middle class
Developing Nuclear Weapons in dispersed, underground and unknown locations.
Could care less what the UN thinks.
Has huge oil contracts with China, which desparately needs their oil
Could quickly cut off oil supplies to the West in event of an attack resulting in huge price increases

U.S. and the West --------
Economic sanctions - would have little effect, plus the Chinese would probably oppose
Restrict diplomatic travel - the mullahs wouldn't care.

Military action -
Quick, short strike - very limited hope of success if targeting nuclear sites due to dispersed nature of nuclear program (see above).

Large scale invasion - Impossible to surprise Iran about an attack. U.S. doesn't have the resources now for a prolonged and difficult war while engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan. There would be a huge stress on the military which would be difficult to maintain. Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a disasterous jump on oil prices. Iran could attack U.S. in Iraq very easily. The U.S. would get very little international help.

Anticipated Actions:
I feel that we can expect a long period of diplomacy and a rebirth of some type of cold war with Iran unless they launch an attack on the West, which includes Israel. In such a circumstance the U.S. would try to destroy the Iranian government as quickly as possible, whatever the difficulties.

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:05 PM | Comments (2)

January 12, 2006

Iran is Playing a Perfect Game

I doubt many can deny that the Iranians are playing a perfect political game these days. There influence in Iraq is growing, especially since the religious Shiites won the last election. Their President recently made statements saying Israel should be wiped off the map. It has served to make the Iranians the most powerful opponent of western influence to the millions of disaffected in the Middle East. They also snubbed their noses at the UN and West by restarting their nuclear enrichment program. Their profits from oil have soared with the rise in petroleum prices, so they are not hurting for cash. Threats of economic sanctions fall on deaf ears. The mullahs would almost like western goods removed from the country considering it will only reduce western cultural influence. The Iranians have done a masterful job of balancing competing interests of Russia, China and the West against each other. Its President makes strong anti-Israeli statements, solidifying its position as the leading anti-West, anti-Israel country in the world. It surreptitiously supplies terrorist organizations with funds and guns throughout the world and the West can't seem to do anything about it. It appears that economic sanctions will have little effect on policy, and an armed attack, given the strained state of the U.S. armed forces and international opposition seems out of the question. One would be hard pressed to figure how they could play this political game any better.

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:18 AM | Comments (2)

Iraq, Occupation and America

How would we feel here in the good old U.S. of A. if we had just gone through a period of 40 years with a horrible dictator? Another country, like China, invaded to get rid of him, citing national security, which proved to be completely bogus. China installed a new government and left 2.8 million troops in our grand country (the U.S. is approximately 20 times bigger than Iraq) to "maintain order". We spent a number of years watching the Chinese march around, drive huge tanks in and around our cities and generally treat us like dirt. During 3 years that the Chinese tried to secure the country more than 350,000 Americans died (the U.S. population is 11.5 times larger than Iraq). In addition, many Americans doubted Chinese motives, thinking they desired our natural resources and access to our technology. Would we be happy campers? Would we want the Chinese to leave? Would many of us choose to fight?

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:02 AM | Comments (4)

January 10, 2006

Iran and The Nukes

The NY Times reports that Iran intends to restart its nuclear enrichment program, which has raised huge concerns in the West, especially with the EU and United States. The United States has threatened to take the matter to the United Nations Security Council and press for sanctions or censure. What is that going to do, really? Will Iran buckle under the strain? How well did it work with Iraq? The Iranian leadership doesn't seem too concerned with what the world thinks, and many Iranians, whether they support the leadership or not, are proud that their country has the ability to develop nuclear weapons. I have not yet seen an effective policy to deal with this problem.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:38 AM | Comments (0)

January 5, 2006

Sharon

Ariel Sharon is in the hospital after suffering a massive stroke. It is all over the news and my re-stating the obvious is no big deal. However, given that this is a "Sports" site and does deal with physical actions and activity, including exercise, I have to make an observation: The man was seriously, seriously overweight. Just like with many obese Americans, there are consequences to not exercising, eating poorly and generally not taking care of one's body. I don't know all of his history, but he has been fat for many years. That sort of problem has bad results, like massive heart attacks. When someone spends their entire life smoking, gets lung cancer and is on the verge of death, one can feel sorry, but you also have to think that the person either had a death wish or was a bit of an idiot. What in the world did everyone expect?

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:05 AM | Comments (0)

December 21, 2005

Bush Thrown So Far Back He May Be Out of the Stadium

I will have more on this later, but The Independent paints a very disturbing picture of the emerging outcome of the Iraq elections. I hope things are not as bad as described. Time will tell on this one.

Iraq is disintegrating. The first results from the parliamentary election last week show the country is dividing between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions.

Religious fundamentalists now have the upper hand. The secular and nationalist candidate backed by the US and Britain was humiliatingly defeated.

The Shia religious coalition has won a total victory in Baghdad and the south of Iraq. The Sunni Arab parties who openly or covertly support armed resistance to the US are likely to win large majorities in Sunni provinces. The Kurds have already achieved quasi-independence and their voting reflected that.

The election marks the final shipwreck of American and British hopes of establishing a pro-Western secular democracy in a united Iraq.

That is One Big Crash

Posted by Chip Spear at 1:31 PM | Comments (0)

December 16, 2005

fumble, Fumble, FUMBLE

I suppose the only bigger fumble would have been to have captured Osama and let him go. From CNN:

Iraqi security forces caught the most wanted man in the country last year, but released him because they didn't know who he was, the Iraqi deputy minister of interior said Thursday.

Hussain Kamal confirmed that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- the al Qaeda in Iraq leader who has a $25 million bounty on his head -- was in custody at some point last year, but he wouldn't provide further details.

I smell payoff, what do you smell? Sometimes my nose doesn't always work so well though, but I am willing to bet that some cold, hard cash changed hands.

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:24 AM | Comments (2)

December 15, 2005

Here It Is, The Truth

If you ever had any question about what is wrong with the Arab world, you don't have to look any further than this article. I shouldn't put down the thoughts that are going through my head, but the leadership of the Arab world are truly scumbags if they don't condemn the statements by the Iranian President.

Arab governments appeared reluctant Thursday to condemn Iran's president for calling the Holocaust a "myth" used by Europeans to create a Jewish state in the heart of the Islamic world.

Posted by Chip Spear at 5:42 PM | Comments (0)

December 14, 2005

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Fumble or Big Gain?

Iran's President yesterday questioned whether the Holocaust really happened. You say, "What the fuck is this guy thinking?" Either he isn't or he very clearly is. What are his motivations here? Who is he talking to? He isn't speaking to the U.S. audience that is for sure. And he isn't talking to anyone in the West either. He is talking not only to people within Iran, but to the large disaffected youth throughout the Middle East, who are looking for some structure to their anger other than the violent acts of Al Qaeda. Ahmadinejad provides them with some focus and a goal. He not only sees Israel as a rallying point, but ties them even closer with the West in a big conspiracy against the Muslims and the Middle East. He contends that the Holocaust was a made up excuse that the Jews and the West used to solve two issues, give the Jews a homeland they wanted and an unstated problem that carried over from the Nazis, which was to get the Jews out of Europe.

Ahmadinejad is appealing to the same type of Middle Easterners that Bush appeals to with his calls for Intelligent Design, the Idiot-Americans, the people that will use any excuse to deny facts if it doesn't fit their frustrations, anger or dreams.

"My earliest memory," Hodges recalls, "is watching John Glenn go up. It was a time that, if you were involved in science or engineering -- particularly science, at that time -- people greatly respected you if you said you were going into those fields. And nowadays, it's like there's no value placed by society on a lot of the observations that are made by people in science.

"It's more than a general dumbing down of America -- the lack of self-motivated thinking: clear, creative thinking. It's like you're happy for other people to think for you. If you should be worried about, say, global warming, well, somebody in Washington will tell me whether or not I should be worried about global warming. So it's like this abdication of intellectual responsibility -- that America now is getting to the point that more and more people would just love to let somebody else think for them."

The country was founded by people who were fundamentally curious; Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin, to name only the most obvious examples, were inveterate tinkerers. (Before dispatching Lewis and Clark into the Louisiana Territory, Jefferson insisted that the pair categorize as many new plant and animal species as they found. Considering they were also mapping everything from Missouri to Oregon, this must have been a considerable pain in the canoe.) Further, they assumed that their posterity would feel much the same as they did; in 1815, appealing to Congress to fund the building of a national university, James Madison called for the development of "a nursery of enlightened preceptors."

It is a long way from that to the moment on February18, 2004, when sixty-two scientists, including a clutch of Nobel laureates, released a report accusing the incumbent Administration of manipulating science for political ends. It is a long way from Jefferson's observatory and Franklin's kite to George W. Bush, in an interview in 2005, suggesting that intelligent design be taught alongside the theory of evolution in the nation's science classes. "Both sides ought to be properly taught," said the president, "so people can understand what the debate is about."

The "debate," of course, is nothing of the sort, because two sides are required for a debate. Nevertheless, the very notion of it is a measure of how scientific discourse, and the way the country educates itself, has slipped through lassitude and inattention across the border into Idiot America -- where fact is merely that which enough people believe, and truth is measured only by how fervently they believe it.

It is a perfect way to discover a justification for their actions. The Iranian President wants to provide them with a real alternative to the West, an entirely different way of looking at the past and by extension, the future. He refuses to accept a past defined by the West. He is an ambitious man, dangerous to us, and perhaps his country, but ambitious nonetheless.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:41 AM | Comments (4)

December 9, 2005

Israel, Iran, History and Tactics

Iran's leader, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, doubted the Holocaust and suggested that Israel be moved to Europe, according to the Washington Post here. An Israel spokesman responded by saying that they were there first and thus had a right to stay.

Ahmadinejad was quoted by Iran's official IRNA news agency as saying in a news conference in the Saudi Arabian city of Mecca: "Some European countries insist on saying that Hitler killed millions of innocent Jews in furnaces, and they insist on it to the extent that if anyone proves something contrary to that, they condemn that person and throw them in jail.

"Although we don't accept this claim, if we suppose it is true, our question for the Europeans is: Is the killing of innocent Jewish people by Hitler the reason for their support to the occupiers of Jerusalem?

"If the Europeans are honest they should give some of their provinces in Europe...

Raanan Gissin, a spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, said in Tel Aviv: "Just to remind Mr. Ahmadinejad, we've been here long before his ancestors were here. Therefore, we have a birthright to be here in the land of our forefathers and to live here. Thank God we have the capability to deter and to prevent such a statement from becoming a reality."

I love that line, "we've been here long before his....". So, if I remember my Middle East history, there were many tribes and groups who lived in that area, dominating and not at various times. Many were nomadic and either moved or were pushed out by stronger forces. Somebody was always somewhere before someone else (How is that for some "somes"?). For him to take a "we were here first ploy" is rather disingenuous. I suppose that he isn't doing anything that Ahmadinejad isn't doing, because as a Persian, he probably has less historical claim than the Jews. More cliches, but I seem to remember, possession is 90% of the law, history is written by the victors. I guess it works if you can get away with it. And hey, if it scores some points with your supporters, what the hell.

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:19 PM | Comments (3)

December 8, 2005

What is the White House Doing?

I am completely perplexed by the current White House "truth" strategy. The President's approval ratings are hovering around 38-40%. The major cause is Iraq and the administrations inability to be honest with the public. Many people think the White House mislead them about the Iraq war. The administration trumpets the booming economy, but the middle and lower classes find nothing in their pockets. Scandals erupt, the White House denies. People lose faith in their leaders and what does the White House do, continues to evade the truth, refusing to provide straightforward answers to questions about torture and secret prisons. Condi Rice travels to Europe and one is left with the feeling that every word she spoke spent considerable time in the diamond district, seeking just the right cut to provide the most sparkle.

I wonder if this contining strategy to not be straightforward with the American public will pay off in next year's elections. I sense that the White House assumes they can just continue on the same path, since it worked so well in the past, and it will eventually get them out of the hole they're in. Just think of the quote, "Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public." There is also the possibility that they are addicted to this behavior and have no idea how to change to "truth-telling".

At some point one would think they would follow that other cliche my Mom would always repeat, "Honesty is the best policy." In the end truth leads to redemption and hope, while lying just destroys.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:54 AM | Comments (2)

November 30, 2005

China Plays Great Chess Against Russia

According to Stratfor, China is carefully playing Russia every way possible to extend its influence in the Far East.

And both men [Medvedev and Ivanov] see China as an opportunity: It is a customer for Russian energy and weapons, and -- by forming a political alliance against the West -- a crucial potential partner in security policy. But, unlike the siloviki, they are also more likely to take a comprehensive view of the power to the east, noting the implications of its giant economy and China's recent "Northern Sword" military exercises, staged on Russia's southern border. It has not been lost on either that ethnic Chinese in the border region outnumber the Russians by more than ten to one.

While the Kremlin treated China as an ally, Beijing has viewed Russia as an opportunity at best or a nuisance at worst -- but certainly not an equal. Wary of political strings Russia tends to attach to deals, China has been focusing on Kazakhstan as a key source of energy supplies, and sending its money there rather than to Russia. Meanwhile, Beijing is unofficially encouraging its citizens to migrate to Siberia, while also buying Russian hardware to upgrade its military capabilities. And China has steadily siphoned influence away in North Korea, leaving Russia largely an outside observer in the six-party nuclear negotiations. None of this would have been possible if Moscow had been taking a more realistic assessment of Beijing's motives and actions.

I am most interested in the issue of China unofficially urging its citizens to settle in Siberia. By increasing the percentage of Chinese to Russians, which is already 10 to 1, they are clearly looking to exploit the disparity to not only increase influence in the region, but perhaps making some claim to controlling the area. Wouldn't that be something. The Chinese not only take advantage of short term gains, as most countries do, but also think in the long term, which is most unusual in our increasingly instantaneous world. They seem to be setting themselves up for more gains as their economic and military might increases over the next decade, or two or three. What a concept. Perhaps we could learn some lessons.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:48 AM | Comments (0)

November 29, 2005

Saddam Hits Slam and Scores

One can certainly hate Saddam, but you have to admire his audacity and spunk. Despite being throttled by the invasion, pulled out of a hole in the ground and spending a long time in solitary confinement the guy does not quit. The first time he came to court resulted in a one month delay. The second time, yesterday, and we have a one week delay. He walks in, assumes control and berates everyone, ready as always, to run the country. He castigates the judge, condemns the U.S. and carries his Koran, signaling to his faithful that he is a Muslim fighting the infidel invaders.

Saddam always perceived himself as the boss. He still does. His perception of himself has not changed. It does not matter that he was pulled out of a hole in the ground, sits in jail or faces death, he is still THE RULER and probably will be until he dies. He does not reflect nor question his own position or authority. He does not comtemplate, "Oh gee, what did I do wrong? How can I reform?" he appears to have no interest in psychoanalysis. Self doubt is not his thing. His performance yesterday left no doubt that he still attempts to force others to his view of the world, with him in control.

And the fact that the TV feed was cut sent a very bad message to the country. Whoever decided to televise the proceedings had to know that Saddam was uncontrollable. If you are going to televise, then televise. People have to make up their own minds. To pull the plug indicates that the government is afraid of honesty and openness, and that they doubt their own legitimacy in the country. I think it also indicates that they are still afraid of what Saddam represents to too many Iraqis who feel angry at the U.S. and the new government and might be willing to go back to a Saddam type leader.

One man, in chains, standing in a courtroom, ranting, scared the shit out of the new Iraqi government and many American officials. That is very impressive. It was a big score for the bad guy.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:06 AM | Comments (1)

November 26, 2005

China, the Toxic Spill and Us

I read several news stories, including this one, in the past couple of days about a large toxic spill in a major river in China. Part of the story described how the Chinese government had kept the spill secret for more than a few days.

The 80 kilometer (50-mile) toxic spill flowed downstream, reaching Harbin this week. Officials were forced to cut off the city's water service for four days, and the spill has sparked widespread unease among residents, who were not notified of the potential health threat for days after the blast.

One Chinese newspaper reported that environmental protection officials discharged water from a reservoir into the river to dilute the spill and failed to warm the public, although the government disputes those allegations.

My immediate reaction was that it seemed typical that the Chinese Communist government would try to cover something like that up. They seemed to act in a manner reminiscent of the old Soviet Union. Think of Chernobyl as a good example. "We are so much better," I immediate said to myself, until I started to think. With the deception about the war, torture, stonewalling about Cheney's Energy Task Force, and the outing of Valerie Plame among others I can't say we are better with any conviction. Without an open and honest government of our own it is difficult, if not impossible, to be taken seriously when we condemn others. We stand as hypocrits to the world. How far we have fallen in such a short time. I think many foreignors could accept Bill Clinton covering up his sexual escapades, though that is a value judgment on my part, however I don't think they accept what the White House has done since 9/11.

Posted by Chip Spear at 1:55 PM | Comments (1)

November 23, 2005

History as Political Tactic

Politicians and leaders of all types have used history as a means of gaining support from various groups to further political agendas for as long as humans have communicated and walked the earth. This is probably a subject for a book instead of a short blog entry but I felt that it was important to discuss as we begin Thanksgiving weekend, a time to be thankful for the things that we have, including family and friends.

Imagine for a moment a time approximately 1400 years into the future. People whose ancestors were at one time American Indians now live in South America. Brazil, Argentina and Chile are the strongest military counties on the planet. North America is rather destitute. The region still has physical wealth but the people are poor and do little with the land or themselves. The American Indians apply every means of political pressure they can on the South American governments. Maps and globes of the Earth now have Antarctica up instead of down. After a particularly violent war the South American governments give a small section of North America back to the North American Indians. The current indigenous people in the North are outraged. They refuse to accept the new political reality. The region, located on the East Coast of North America, prospers. The Indians worship their old gods and reinvigorate their old customs. Many want to re-claim all the old land. The current residents are outraged and refuse to accede to the new reality. The Indians establish a strong economic and military state, one which is stronger than any other country on the continent. They name the state Israel. The surrounding countries on the continent refuse to accept the loss of their lands to the new Indian state.

Let's stop there for a moment and consider a couple of other territories, specifically the real Israel, Taiwan and Tibet. What right do the Chinese have to Tibet and Taiwan? From a historical perspective they have certainly played a significant role in governing or influencing their politics at various times in history. If one reads about their past, a google search will provide you with a great deal of information, you will see that a couple of hundred years of some sort of political influence in regions that have thousands of years of history does not necessarily indicate a right to eternal control and political domination. It seems that we have a situation of "might makes right." Israel isn't about to give all their land back to the Palestinians any more than we are going to give all our land back to the Indians.

Leaders of various sorts, I include religious as well as political, often use history as a means to rally the team. They look at one view of history in one area at one time and turn it into a cause, a strategy to consolidate and focus political action. Think of how many times throughout history leaders scream that "so and so took our land", this book or document, written hundreds or thousands of years ago, says that this region is ours, or we, whoever we is, are the chosen people and have all rights to whatever. People get angry, arrogant and violent as a result.

The past is filled with groups conquering other groups, oftentimes forcing them to move or migrate. They might be North American Indians, South American Indians, Europeans, Asians, Africans or Islanders, it doesn't really matter. The point here is for us to be thankful for the things that we have and also be thankful for where we came from, but not in some way that indicates we have a right to something that does not specifically belong to us. And if it did, there is only so much one can do before we begin to not only hurt others, but hurt ourselves. Life is too short to waste consumed by the past. The past should be a guide to make us better and wiser for the future not the past. Going in reverse is a bad idea. Tear out the rear view mirror, move on. Eat some turkey

Posted by Chip Spear at 5:46 PM | Comments (0)

November 14, 2005

5 Questions from Non-Muslims to Muslims

This article in the LA Times is thought provoking and worth the read. I list the questions below, but please read the piece.

1) Why are you so quiet?
2) Why are none of the Palistinian terrorists Christian?
3) Why is only one of the 47 Muslim-majority countries a free country?
4) Why are so many atrocities committed and threatened by Muslims in the name of Islam?
5) Why do countries governed by religious Muslims persecute other religions?

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:27 AM | Comments (3)

November 10, 2005

Stadium Erupts in France

Wow, what a mess. France, the land of great wine, cheese, romance and love sure has a lot of hate and anger these days. I haven't been to France in quite a few years, so whatever I say has to be taken with a degree of scepticism, but I think it is important to raise a few issues, some born of generalizations and hopefully, some not. So here is my list of known assumptions:
1) There are a lot of poor, angry, African and Middle Eastern immigrants in France who can't get good paying jobs, feel discriminated against and see little hope of improving their lives.
2) Many of these folks are Muslims, some second generation.
3) France says that it is open to immigration with equality for all
4) The French are considered arrogant and not terribly accepting of outsiders
5) Many people immigrate to a country and do not make a great effort to accept their new homeland's culture. Newcomers don't learn the language or celebrate national holidays. Many continue to dress and act as they did in their native lands.

"What we have here is a failure to communicate." This is obviously a very complicated problem, one whose prescriptions can't be adequately explained in a couple of sentences, however I will paint some very wide brush strokes. The only way to fix it is for everyone to accept some of the blame and make substantial changes in the way they interact with each other. The dissaffected need to not only feel a sense of hope, but see tangible improvement in their lives. They need to know that there is real opportunity for them in France. The French people also need to make them feel welcome. On the other side of the court, the Arabs and Blacks have to make a greater effort to integrate into French society. They need to learn the language, accept the customs and open up their Muslim thinking to accept more Western thought, if it is too exclusive. "When in Rome, do as the Roman's do."

Posted by Chip Spear at 4:49 PM | Comments (0)

November 7, 2005

Bush Tries to Score With America and The World

President Bush said today that the United States does not torture prisoners. Unfortunately for him too much evidence indicates that this is not true. Prisoners have died in jail, suffering at the hands of interrogators. I wonder if Americans are really going to believe him, considering the facts. You can read some accounts at Human Rights Watch here.

President George W. Bush said on Monday "we do not torture" and defended his administration's efforts to stop the U.S. Congress from imposing rules on the handling of terrorism suspects.
Bush would not confirm the existence of CIA secret prisons that The Washington Post disclosed last week and would not address demands by the International Committee of the Red Cross to have access to the suspects reportedly held at them.

Do people continue to accept this sort of thing after all the deception? How many times can someone tell you that red is blue before you say, "Are you kidding, do you think I am an idiot?

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:21 AM | Comments (4)

November 1, 2005

Things Aren't So Perfect in Paradise

A top government official in China reported a terrible water crisis, the worst in the world.

China's water crisis -- from severe shortages to heavy pollution -- is the worst in the world and requires urgent action, a top government official says.
China was "facing a water crisis more severe and urgent than any other country in the world," Vice Minister of Construction Qiu Baoxing told a conference in Beijing on developing China's urban water supply.
The construction ministry is responsible for supplying water to residents.
"We've got to solve the problem before it is too late," warned Qiu, according to the China Daily

In the U.S. we are so obsessed with the specter of an all powerful, perfect China that we often don't realize that they have their problems too.

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:54 PM | Comments (1)

October 28, 2005

This is why I love Politics

This article reaffirms comments by Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that Israel be wiped off the map. I got to the end and just laughed.

Officials and analysts in Tehran have played down the remarks by Ahmadinejad, a former member of the hardline Revolutionary Guards and traditional religious conservative.

They have said the comments did not mark the start of a new, more aggressive stance toward Israel and that Tehran was not seeking confrontation with the West.

Now let me see if I got this straight, because I can easily get confused. The President of the country advocates wiping Israel off the map. No other President has done something like that during the history of the United Nations. Iran has never made such a blatantly hostile statement before yet we are to believe that the comments did not mark a new, more aggressive stance toward Israel or the United States. That is a joke, right? And does anyone actually believe that? As the cliche asserts, "Sometimes you can't make this stuff up."

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:23 PM | Comments (0)

October 27, 2005

Iran Plays a Dangerous Game

Yesterday Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for removing Israel from the face of the Earth. Many countries in the world strongly denounced the statement saying everything you might expect, "deplorable," "we condemn these statements", etc., etc., etc. Some groups in the United States already think that the new President was one of the leaders of the takeover of the American embassy in Iran during Jimmy Carter's administration, though they have no definitive proof at this time.

During a meeting with protesting students at Iran's Interior Ministry, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad quoted a remark from Ayatollah Khomeini, founder of Iran's Islamic revolution, that Israel "must be wiped out from the map of the world."

The president then said: "And God willing, with the force of God behind it, we shall soon experience a world without the United States and Zionism," according to a quote published by Iran's state news outlet, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

The remarks by Ahmadinejad on Wednesday coincided with a month-long protest against Israel called "World Without Zionism" and with the approach of Jerusalem Day.

He also is not too favorably disposed toward the United States.

So what is the deal? He must have known that the remarks would get huge international attention and condemnation. He obviously did not care about how the west would react. He must think that they could not do anything more to Iran than what they are already doing. On the other hand, his remarks certainly stir up fundamentalists throughout the Middle East. It also reminds those same people, that despite the gains of liberal ideas, i.e. the referendum approving the constitution in Iraq, the pullout of Syria in Lebanon, the de-fanging of Libya, the West's earthquake relief help in Pakistan, and Turkey's attempt to join the EU, that the cause is not lost. He proclaims Iran unrepentant, strong and focused on fundamentalist beliefs. As cheerleader to the team, he urges them onward and to never forget the game plan despite the setbacks.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:24 AM | Comments (3)

October 21, 2005

Saddam and DeLay

Saddam Hussein and Tom DeLay both attacked the judges in their court appearances this week. DeLay attacked Ronnie Earle, the prosecuting attorney, accusing him of being on a witch hunt and going after political enemies. Saddam doesn't recognize the authority of the government and accuses the government of attacking him as a political enemy. Tom doesn't seem to recognize the authority of any government official who isn't part of his political party, the Baaths, oh excuse me, the Republicans. Both men are attacking the authority of their accusers. Tom DeLay is certainly not the evil person that Saddam is, I think, but the similarities in their tactics here are interesting and amusing.

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:43 PM | Comments (0)

October 18, 2005

The Global War on Terror, Iraq and WMD

Did we forget the Global War on Terror, that everyone was so gung ho about immediately after 9/11? Where is that support now? Do we no longer see the forest through the trees? The Administration has badly managed the war, no question. However, very little of our invasion had to do with WMD, and it had everything to do with the Global War on Terror. Watch the video as I explain why it was a means to pressure the Saudis to crack down on extremists within Saudi Arabia, it was a way to get the Iranians to dismantle their nuclear weapons program and drop their support of other terrorist organizations like Hezzbollah and Hamas. It was also a way to tell Syria and Libya to shape up and a way to signal to the fundamentalists that the U.S. was not going to act passively and wait while they continually attacked us. The reasons are more varied and numerous than those, but that is a start. We are not thinking about the bigger picture here and I think that is a mistake.

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:49 PM | Comments (2)

October 4, 2005

You Think We Have a War Now In Iraq? You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet!

There is not much to say about this except that it almost ensures the Sunnis will resort to even more violence. They will feel that the Shiites and Kurds rigged the election, changed the rules in mid-game, and are not serious about resolving or including them in the new government. This seems like the absolute worst scenario. The Sunnis, with great reason, will be very angry. The NY Times reports:

Iraq's Shiite and Kurdish leaders quietly adopted new rules over the weekend that will make it virtually impossible for the constitution to fail in the coming national referendum.

The move prompted Sunni Arabs and a range of independent political figures to complain that the vote was being fixed.

Some Sunni leaders who have been organizing a campaign to vote down the proposed constitution said they might now boycott the referendum on Oct. 15. Other political leaders also reacted angrily, saying the change would seriously damage the vote's credibility.

Under the new rules, the constitution will fail only if two-thirds of all registered voters - rather than two-thirds of all those actually casting ballots - reject it in at least three of the 18 provinces.

The change, adopted during an unannounced vote in Parliament on Sunday afternoon, effectively raises the bar for those who oppose the constitution. Given that fewer than 60 percent of registered Iraqis voted in the January elections, the chances that two-thirds will both show up at the polls and vote against the document in three provinces would appear to be close to nil.

"This is a mockery of democracy, a mockery of law," said Adnan al-Janabi, a secular Sunni representative and a member of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's party. "Many Sunnis have been telling me they didn't believe in this democratic process, and now I believe they are vindicated."

Who does the U.S. side with in this quarrel? Without Sunni participation a full scale civil war is almost assured. Won't that be a wonderful outcome of our invasion? How much worse can it get?

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:46 AM | Comments (1)

October 1, 2005

Retired General Says Iraq War Biggest U.S. Mistake

A retired U.S. general, Retired Army Lt. Gen. William Odom, stated that he feels the U.S. war in Iraq was a huge strategic blunder along biblical proportions (the biblical part is from me, but he did say huge). Of course that is just one opinion, granted, of a general who should know about these sorts of things, but it is not a fact. You can read the article here.

The invasion of Iraq was the "greatest strategic disaster in United States history," a retired Army general said yesterday, strengthening an effort in Congress to force an American withdrawal beginning next year.

Retired Army Lt. Gen. William Odom, a Vietnam veteran, said the invasion of Iraq alienated America's Middle East allies, making it harder to prosecute a war against terrorists.

The U.S. should withdraw from Iraq, he said, and reposition its military forces along the Afghan-Pakistani border to capture Osama bin Laden and crush al Qaeda cells.

If we go back to George Friedman's book, America's Secret War, for a moment to review his ideas: (1) The U.S. went into Iraq partly to show the militant extremists that we didn't have to rely on coalitions to win - we lose on that ground. (2) The big, bad, tough Americans have no guts, they cut and run when the going gets tough - wow, big loser there.(3) Al Qaeda can beat us - we lose on that ground. (4) Iran would have huge influence in the south - we lose on that too. (5) We can force the Saudis to crack down on their militants because we have major forces on their border and developed a democracy as an example for their people right next door - we lose there. (6) We make sure that Iraq doesn't become a long term training ground for Muslim extremists - big loss there. (7) Iran would assume that we would never attack them for their nuke development if we leave Iraq - another whooping loss there too.

This is war, not some video game. A dirty, horrible, nasty, ugly war that has huge consequences, many of them we are either not aware of or don't think about. The Bush administration has made a mess of executing this, but it doesn't change the problems involved, or the stakes. Death is terrible and it is an extremely sad thing when even one person dies. That said, Americans are exceedingly crazy about death, due in large part to the media, our expectations, and the way we built our country. We don't want anyone to die, which is a good thing. Approximately 1900 Americans have died in the Iraq War. I bring back some statistics that I posted previously.

U.S. Civil War Battles:
Chancellorsville, May 1-4, 1863
Union - 17,000 killed, wounded and missing
Confederate - 13,000 killed, wounded and missing
Fredericksburg, Dec. 13. 1862
Union - 12,653 killed, wounded and missing
Confederate - 5,309 killed, wounded and missing
Gettysburg, July 1-3, 1863
Union - 23,000 killed, wounded and missing
Confederate - 28,000 killed, wounded and missing
Day 3 - Pickett's Charge - 10,000 casualties in 50 minutes

I feel we should all take a few minutes and think about the endgame here. War is not nice, or easy. What do we want and how are we really going to achieve it?

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:27 AM | Comments (0)

September 29, 2005

Alternative Energy Scoring Points at a Faster Pace

The WorldWatch Institute reported that alternative energy sources are providing increasing amounts of the world's energy needs. They anticipate that the trend will continue quickly over the coming years.

...oil production is falling in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries. These include six of the 11 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In the continental United States, the think tank said, oil production peaked at eight million barrels per day in 1970 and fell to 2.9 million barrels daily last year.

Production of biofuels, wind power, and solar energy are all growing at rates of 20-30 percent per year, compared with growth rates of around two percent for oil and gas, Flavin said.

The costs of renewable energy were falling fast, news reports Wednesday quoted Flavin as telling the conference. Wind power cost 46 cents per kilowatt-hour in 1980 but now costs less than six cents.

New energy sources are attracting roughly $30 billion in investment annually, he added, with Brazil, China, Germany, Japan, and California leading the emerging market.

''Already, 35 million homes in China get their hot water from solar collectors. That is more than the rest of the world combined,'' Flavin told the Reuters news agency in Johannesburg.

''There are prospects for real take-offs in solar and wind power in China, and not just hot water for homes but in industry,'' he added. ''State-owned industries and private companies there are investing heavily in renewables.''

Renewable sources account for 25 percent of Sweden's energy use and 45 percent in Norway. The United States lagged behind, with only 4.2 percent of its energy consumption coming from renewable sources.

Energy companies and governments were driving growth in renewables, Flavin said, with firms including Royal Dutch Shell Group, BP, and Mitsubishi among the major players.

I guess it is no surprise that the U.S. is so far behind. In my mind we should view this as another fabulous opportunity for the companies in the U.S. to use their creativity and "energy" to grab the initiative in these fields and create whole new industries, products, and markets. Think of the money to be made. This shift is going to happen, we can either be a leader or a follower. Perhaps it will occur on its own, but it would certainly happen faster if there were a "Manhattan Project" type program initiated, not necessarily completely funded by, the government. This is where leadership and vision truly comes into play. You can read the entire article here.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:01 AM | Comments (2)

September 23, 2005

The Mysteries of Iraq, WMD and Al Qaeda

I have been reading a terrific book by George Friedman called America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between America and its Enemies. The book goes into detail about the war in Afghanistan, the ongoing struggle with Al Qaeda, Iraq and the roles played by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran. It has been an eye opener. Many of the issues are things I was vaguely aware of, but not to the degree outlined in this book. Among some of Friedman's points are that Iran wanted the U.S. to invade Iraq and was feeding Chalabi with intelligence, which he then passed on to the U.S. The problem for the U.S. was that Iran was only giving Chalabi part of the story. They were not saying anything about the potential for a huge insurgent opposition. The U.S. and Saudi's were playing a game of chicken. The U.S. didn't really want to invade Iraq, they realized that it was going to be a tough situation at best, but they needed to find a way to get the House of Saud to clamp down on Al Qaeda and especially its supporters within Saudi Arabia. The U.S. realized that the House of Saud was sitting on a powder keg and was, and still is, reluctant to act against extremist elements. The Saudi's didn't want American troops in Iraq sitting on their border. They felt that the U.S. would not invade without using Saudi territory, which is one reason they asked the U.S. to pull all troops out of the country prior to the invasion.

Friedman also contends that the U.S. did not want a coalition. They needed to appear strong and effective without the help of others. The Arabs did not particularly respect American strength. They felt, with some reason, that within a short time and a few well publicized deaths that Americans would turn against the war and leave. This is exactly what the Iranians thought too. They believed the Americans would come in, get rid of Saddam, then depart, leaving them with huge influence in the south. In addition, many Arabs were not going to stake their lives on the U.S. if it was going to pull out too soon and leave the insurgents and Al Qaeda stronger than before.

The WMD reason for war was only one of a number that motivated the Bush administration to attack Iraq. The others were complicated, difficult to sell to the American public and perhaps couldn't be stated publically anyway. The issues here are very complex and interesting, which makes the book a fascinating read. I only touched on a few of the points, so read the book. I think you will learn a great deal. I know I have.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:18 AM | Comments (5)

September 21, 2005

North Korea Can't Handle a Light Water Nuclear Reactor

It seems that North Korea needs a power grid 10 times larger than the one it currently has to handle the energy generated by one light water nuclear reactor. Their grid is so primitive and small that it is unable to handle the electricity generated by something with so much power. What this implies is that the light water reactor issue is a political ploy, something that the North Koreans are using to further other political interests, like keeping their nuclear weapons. The Nautilus Institute provided the analysis, which you can find here. There is an article here too.

According to the Nautilus Institute, a California-based research group on Northeast Asian energy isues, the deal was doomed from the start.

"The North Korean grid could not then, nor could it ever, have supported these two reactors as the grid was far too small and simple to run such large and potentially hazardous units," the institute said in a July report.

One of the report's co-authors, South Korean nuclear expert Kang Jungmin, said Pyongyang's demand for the reactors was a political gesture made against the advice of the country's own power experts.

"To consume the electricity generated by such reactors, North Korea would need a power grid 10 times the size of what they now have," Kang said.

"They simply cannot even use the reactors, even if they ever get them," he said.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:27 AM | Comments (0)

September 19, 2005

Ah, See, the Stakes Are Raised

Well, it didn't take long for the sudden jubilation about an agreement to come to a standstill. When I read the part about the nuclear reactor issue being discussed "at the appropriate time" I thought, "That is a recipe for disaster." Well, guess what, now the whole thing is thrown up in the air because the North is insisting on the reactor before they dismantle their weapons program as a sign of good faith. I read one report that said it would take 10 years to build the reactor. If that is true, then we still have some major work to do. These guys are tough poker players. They are not going to give up those weapons easily. You can read this for a little update.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:23 PM | Comments (1)

September 16, 2005

North Korea Wants to Play Poker Well Into the Night

North Korea is in no hurry to give up its nuclear weapons. Perhaps I should say that Kim Jong Il is in no hurry to give up his weapons. Watch the video here.

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:46 PM | Comments (0)

September 2, 2005

Nuclear Talks Resume With North Korea

Watch the newest (actually the first) Political Sports video on the resumption of Nuclear Weapons talks with North Korea

Posted by Chip Spear at 1:25 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 29, 2005

Flexibility and Adjustments

A football team always starts a game with a plan. In fact all good teams start games with a plan. They begin to execute it and hope that it works. If it doesn't they usually don't keep running the same plays. They adjust, at least the good ones do. If one thing doesn't work, perhaps something else will. They explore and prod the opponent looking to exploit any weaknesses. The coach fine tunes and develops a new strategy as the game evolves. If he doesn't the team usually loses. Sometimes they don't have the ability to adjust, perhaps the players are not good enough, or they don't have the immediate skills necessary to exploit what they found. It is a very simple concept.

I bring this up because of Iraq. Rumsfeld, Bush, Cheney, Wolfowitz and company had a plan. They attacked Iraq, took Baghdad and begin to find that things were not happening as they anticipated. The people were not waiting in the streets with flowers. Many viewed U.S. troops as another in a long line of occupiers. Saddam's army dissolved into the landscape to reemerge as a vicious insurgency. The Sunnis wanted nothing to do with the U.S. constructed Iraqi government. To many experts it seemed the U.S. had far too few troops to do the job properly. The original plan was not working. So have we adapted? Have we implemented new strategies to contend with events we did not consider when we first entered the country? If we did, these strategies don't get much play in the mainstream media. If we are serious about winning instead of playing politics with our military strategy and the U.S. electorate, then we better adjust, or we will lose. big time.

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Truth, Truth, Where Lies the Truth?

George W. and supporters on the right say that we are doing well in Iraq. We must stay the course. Members of the left and opponents of the war say we are losing and the best course is to start bringing our troops home now. Administration advocates point to the proposed constitution, the Iraqi election, the continued training of Iraqi security forces and a whole host of accomplishements, many of which you can find here, as proof that the U.S. is making progress.

There is no doubt that many good things are happening in Iraq. We don't hear much about it, since the media sees little outside the Baghdad Green Zone. However, the progress of political and economic reconstruction is extremely slow and there are VERY large problems, like the growing insurgency, the reluctance of Sunnis to participate in the government, the growing hatred of the occcupation, the fighting between Shiites in the south, the influence of Iran and Al Qaeda, to name just a few of the major ones. Polls show falling support for the President and his Iraq strategy. Polls don't indicate whether a particular policy is going to work. It only indicates opinions. Think of all those people in the 1400s who thought the earth was flat. Just because most people believed it did not make it true. Likewise, just because many doubt the wisdom of Bush's policies does not mean that it is not the best long term strategy for the Middle East.

It would certainly be wonderful to see into the future. I would be a very rich man, however that part of my brain doesn't seem to work extremely well. So we are left with guessing. Bush might be right. Iraq might actually approve the proposed constitution. The Iraqi army might be able to take over the war against the insurgents and defeat them within the next year or so. Electricity might be on 24 hours each day all week. The Shias might find a way to co-exist with the Sunnis. American troops might be able to return home without leaving much of the country as a terrorist training ground. That all could happen and maybe it will. It is just at this point in time my perception of Iraq is that the possibility of any one of those events happening is extremely remote, let alone all of them.

Posted by Chip Spear at 1:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 26, 2005

Do as I say, not as I do

This is too funny to not pass on. Sometimes life is just plain ridiculous.

Posted by Chip Spear at 1:47 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Iraq: At Another Crossroad

If I were a Sunni, why would I agree to the latest Iraq constitution proposal? The NY Times, among others, reports here. Under the current version, the country would divide into autonomous regions. The issue here is that the Shiites would control 9 of 18 Iraqi provinces holding the largest oil fields. The Kurds would control 3 in the north but have designs on Kirkut, another rich oil province. The Sunnis want each region permanently restricted to 3 districts. They fear that they will be left with little if each region controls much of its own oil revenue. They also fear that the Shiites will align their region with Iran more than any centralized Iraqi government.

Why would the Sunnis want to agree to this constitution? What is in it for them? Any agreement between parties has to be one of mutual benefit. This is as true in a macro context, international, as it is in a micro context, interpersonal issues. Though there are many interrelated issues it does seem that the Kurds and Shiites come out way ahead in this particular scenario, while the Sunnis are clear losers. They didn't help themselves by boycotting the elections, but nonetheless, the Kurds and Shiites must understand that the Sunnis are only going to increase their support of an insurgency if they do not obtain increased benefits from the agreement.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:04 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 23, 2005

Iraq Constitution

What if the three groups don't really want a national constitution? It is certainly conjecture, but what if large factions of Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds are making demands they know will scuttle any agreement on a constitution? That would leave the U.S. in a pickle wouldn't it?

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:26 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 5, 2005

More on North Korea

Paul French, an expert on North Korea, gives this interesting analysis of the current crisis in negotiations over nuclear weapons with the North Koreans. His view that the Chinese are tired of dealing with North Korea's problems is something I had not been aware of.

He (Kim) was shown round a GM plant and a hi-tech factory in Shanghai, and received a lecture about the benefits of Chinese-style reform.

The Chinese were effectively telling Mr Kim that it was time for change - and that they were fed up with the growing number of refugees fleeing over the Chinese border, and increasing demands for aid.......

But the diplomacy is failing because North Korea, with no allies but the increasingly exasperated Chinese, and little prospect of economic revitalisation, needs to ensure a continued drip feed of aid.

That means a hard bargaining process, and Mr Kim has one bargaining chip - his nuclear bombs.

Without the bombs, North Korea plays second string in the Far East. Granted it possesses a large army, and will continue to be a threat to the South, but otherwise it plays no significant role in any political or economic activities in the area. As long as Kim has a bomb, or people think he does, they will be more willing to include him in regional issues. He is such a meglomaniac, it seems inconceivable that he will give up his cards without a big economic or political score. Eventually he will have to do something that improves the plight of his people, otherwise the country will completely collapse. If he opens the country to foreigners, including investments, his people might realize how much he has screwed them and revolt.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:05 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 4, 2005

It's Your Fault I Shot You

Sometimes you can only laugh at the absurdity of things, given how horrible life can be. Osama's second in command condemned Blair and his policies saying that they are to blame for the recent bombings in London. The report by BBC News states:

Osama Bin Laden's lieutenant Ayman al-Zawahri has warned London will face more attacks because of Tony Blair's foreign policy decisions.

The al-Qaeda deputy said: "Blair has brought you destruction to the heart of London, and he will bring more destruction, God willing."

Mr Blair denies his policies provoked the 7 July bombs, which killed 56.

Al-Zawahri also warned the US that Iraq would be worse than Vietnam.

So, if I understand it, if these guys decide they don't like something that we, someone in the West, does, they shoot us, or blow up innocent civilians, or destroy buildings or whatever, and it is our fault. They act as dictators determining what Western governments or civilians or companies do, and if we don't do it, they kill us. That is like someone killing you because they don't like the way you walk. You have to walk, but they don't care, they kill you anyway. Now our actions can certainly be questioned in Iraq, but these guys are using anything convenient as an excuse to continue their dispicable actions. If it wasn't Iraq it would be something else. The U.S. and Britain were not in Iraq or Afghanistan at the time of the World Trade Center attack. And what about the U.S.S. Cole attack, or the U.S. Embassy attacks in Africa? Al Qaeda and company will find anything and use it an excuse to destroy.

This situation reminds me of a young boy I know who has some serious emotional issues. He oftentimes explodes in angry outbursts at the oddest moments. He blames his parents or siblings for things that are clearly not related to the situation, or if they are, only in a tangential manner. He twists logic to fit his state of mind, lashing out at anyone nearby. Sometimes one can reason with him, but usually you have to wait it out. He never accepts that he misinterpreted the situation. He is all too ready to blame others for something that was either his fault or nobody's. At times some change will trigger an explosion because he is unable to adjust to change. In some ways I see the same thing happening with Muslim extremists. They are troubled young men who need something that we haven't or can't provide. That is not to say that it is totally our responsibility to solve their problems, but it is truly a pathetic situation.

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 3, 2005

North Korea in No Hurry to Give Up Nukes

Latest reports from the AP here indicate that North Korea is in no hurry to give up either its nuclear weapons or its weapons making facilities. Kim is more interested in power than he wants to provide for his people. Aid would only be another tool that he would use to solidify his hold on the country. And by all accounts I have read, that does not appear to be an immediate problem. Hence, no hurry to lose the weapons. I would suspect he will string negotiations along in one form or another for quite some time.

Posted by Chip Spear at 4:29 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 29, 2005

The North Korean Poker Game

The AP reports that negotiations with North Korea and nuclear weapons are extended into the weekend. That is a good thing. At least there is some hope that the U.S. and N. Korea will come to some sort of agreement about ridding the peninsula of nukes. However, I still find it extremely hard to believe that Kim Jong Il has any intention of getting rid of his strongest cards. The two sides now are playing a game of chicken. Each wants the other to show good intent. The U.S. says dismantle your nukes and we will give you aid. The North Koreans want security guarantees and aid before they will dismantle their nukes. I can't help but think of two kids arguing. "You first." "No you." "No you." "I asked you first..."

I have made the point a couple of times that Kim does not seem terribly interested in the welfare of his country and its citizens. Past actions appear to substantiate the fact that Kim cares about Kim. He strings people together by threading wires under their collarbones. He has a Napoleonic complex, a little man that dreams of world power. The nuclear weapons provide him with attention and leverage. Without them, he is a nuisance. With them, he is an important player in the region and a factor in Chinese, Japanese and U.S. foreign policy.

Posted by Chip Spear at 1:34 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

July 28, 2005

The Soon to be Former Great U.S. Navy

Imagine for a moment that you are President of the United States. A small group of military advisers come to you and tell you that China is on track to have more than twice as many submarines as the U.S. within 5 years. In addition, their fleet will be larger than ours within 10 years. Your military is tied down in a large war in the Middle East, you are running huge budget deficits. You have little discretionary income at your disposal to increase spending on new ships. We know that China's economy is growing faster than almost any other country in the world. And its military expansion is trying to set new world speed records. Then there is the fact that China holds so much U.S. debt. That certainly restricts your strategic options.

Okay, political mavens, what would you do?

Thanks to Chuck Dupree at Bad Attitudes for pointing out this article.

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July 27, 2005

North Korea - Can We Believe What We See?

Kim Jong Il has proposed dismantling his nuclear weapons program if the U.S. normalizes relations and promises to not attack the North. Channel News Asia has the article here. Up until now the U.S. has refused to normalize relations with the secretive, dictatorial state. Given past history, it is hard to believe that the North would completely dismantle its program. I understand that it desparately needs aid and foreign investment, but I doubt that Kim would give up all his cards in order to help his country. He has always been one to think of his own power first. He must feel that it is more important to give up the bombs and acquire aid to keep his country under control than maintain his iron-fist and continue to use his nuclear weapons as bargaining chips for years to come.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:06 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

U. S. Seen in a Better Light

A recent study by the Pew Global Attitudes Project finds that opinions of the U.S. have improved significantly over the past three years. The article in the LA Times is well worth the read.

The percentage of people holding a favorable impression of the United States increased in Indonesia (+23 points), Lebanon (+15), Pakistan (+2) and Jordan (+16). It also went up in such non-Muslim nations as France, Germany, Russia and India.

Is Bush's strategy working?

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:33 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 21, 2005

Excellent Article on "War on Terrorism"

Thanks for TPM Cafe, a fabulous site, for this link to a great article discussing our attitudes about the War on Terrorism.

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:32 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 14, 2005

North Korea - "Deal me in, boys"

North Korea announced recently that it would rejoin six-party nuclear talks. This comes one month after the North said it had a stockpile of nuclear weapons and was making more. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il recently told a Chinese envoy that he is interested in a nuclear-free peninsula. On the surface it seems like a lot of contradictory moves. However, if one assumes that Kim is really after power on an international scale, his political moves are not that difficult to comprehend.

Kim seems to want power, he is not suicidal as far as one can tell. I would assume he will not go to war with the U.S. I believe that he is a megalomaniac. He wants to be a player. That would only happen if he had either economic or military power. And since he doesn't have much of an economy he needs to nuclear card to sit at the table with all the big boys. They would be forced to include him in major decisions in the region. This would not be the case otherwise. Without those weapons he couldn't play. Plus he could extract more economic aid as long as he was waving his nuclear cards around. If I were him, I doubt that I would give up those weapons.

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:30 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 8, 2005

Fundamentalists Control the Game in Middle East

After the London terrorist attack yesterday I couldn't help but think about the state of society in the Middle East. I realize this is a very broad brushstroke because each area and country is different, but there clearly is something very wrong in the region. It is hard not to think of the region as a political and social cesspool, breeding uneducated, poor youth who have few options in life. Too many turn to outlandish religious beliefs to find direction for their anger and rage. Fundamentalists terrify the ruling elites. The governments, mostly dictatorships hiding behind pseudo-democracies or monarchies, do little to counteract extremists, who hold many of these countries in such fear.

Tom Friedman, from the NY Times, has addressed this issue for the past few years, calling on moderates throughout the region to stand up to this behavior. He contends that the region can only change when moderate elements condemn extremists and take real control of their own societies, pulling them into the global economy. I agree. Granted there is much that we in the west can do to help not only them, but ourselves, in changing behavior. But ulimately, we can only hope that moderate voices will rise up to make a real revolution. Until that happens we are in for a long, horrible "game" between civilized societies and some exceedingly bad people.

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:28 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 7, 2005

Al Qaeda Hits A Big Homer?

Assuming Al Qaeda was responsible for the recent bombing in London, they have certainly hit a huge home run, as disgusting as that may be. One analyst I heard on CNN mentioned that the security issues were going to become even more problematic for law enforcement. He felt that the Al Qaeda cells were becoming more autonomous and therefore harder to detect and track. This is not a good thing. I am sorry that I don't remember his name, but he went on to say that the governments would probably restrict civil rights more to investigate potential terrorists. The result is a change of culture. Our governments become more intrusive and we become less free.

How far does this go? And what are the alternatives? What strategy is appropriate to counter secretive, destructive forces who only want to kill. Their demands of westerners completely leaving the Middle East is truly fantasy, it is totally implausible. For us to only use military means will not solve the problem. The White House desparately needs other stategies to address the huge poverty and education issues in the Middle East. Increasingly sophisticated terrorists will force us into more creative stategies to deal with our enemies while addressing poverty and educational opportunities. I hope for everyone's sake that the administration moves quickly away from thinking that an ever bigger hammer and more restrictions on our free society will solve the problem.

Posted by Chip Spear at 11:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 6, 2005

Iraq - Death by a Thousand Cuts

It seems rather clear to me that the insurgency's strategy for "defeating" the U.S. is to use a Chinese technique of a "Death by a Thousand Cuts". Any one is not enough to kill you, but over time the cumulative effect is to increase one's pain and slowly bleed you to death. Each day the insurgency sets off another roadside bomb which kills a relatively small number of soldiers. The incident is reported in the world's newspapers, especially those in the United States. The next day comes and another report of a bomb or suicide bomber is on the front page of the paper or is the lead story on the evening news programs. Every day we are reminded of the ongoing war, the never ending death of young Americans dying in a far away land, for a cause that is increasingly difficult to obtain. The numbers are not large when compared to other wars. The losses in Vietnam, Korea, WWI, WWII or the Civil War were so much larger. The enemy is very effectively using the media to turn the citizens of the U.S. against the administration. Each death, even one, seems to make every American question the validity of our actions. How long before Zarqawi and Al Qaeda change American opinion to the point where we demand a withdrawal from Iraq? It would be a truly amazing victory for them.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:35 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 5, 2005

A Different Perspective on the Iraq Mess

I found this analysis of Iraq by William Pfaff of Channel NewsAsia to be quite interesting. It certainly doesn't cover all issues and implications but it does give one something else to think about. He states

The first thing we should be able to agree on is that Iraq is in part a war of religion, and in part a war of nationalism...

Islamic fundamentalism is specific to the Muslim religion. It is not politically expansionist. It wants to convert other Muslims, not the rest of the world - whose secularising and atheist values it fears and wants to keep at bay.

It is a product of Islam itself, a radical reform movement that distantly resembles one of the puritanical sects of Medieval Christianity, as well as other fundamentalist revivals in Islamic history.

It attacks the West not to defeat or overcome it but because it believes that the West, and the United States and Israel in particular, attacks Islam - in Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, etc - and its invasive cultural influence corrupts Islam.

Left alone, the extremists would focus on radicalising Islamic society. The effect of that would be to make them once again Islam's internal problem rather than our problem.

It would also set them on the road to failure since, as the Iran case has already demonstrated, fundamentalism has no real answer for Islam's crisis in confronting the modern world..... the West is in no fundamental danger from Islamic militancy, no matter how many isolated bombings or attacks on Western symbols or buildings the terrorists succeed in committing. To the West, they are a nuisance. To contemporary Islam, they are a threat.

What about American victory in Iraq, defined by the collapse of the insurrection and survival of the US-sponsored Iraqi government?

This would probably convince Middle Eastern governments to accept US domination of the region for a time (whether or not real conversion to democracy follows). It would also feed the subterranean Arab nationalism that would persist, still focused on expelling the US from the region.

Mr Bush says that Iraq has become a trap into which Islamic militants are drawn, and in which they will be destroyed. (He and other Republicans have said this is better than fighting them in America's streets, which is true, but imaginative nonsense.) If that is the plan, it is relevant to consider that there are nearly a billion Muslims in the world.

The outcome of the Iraq war - whether American defeat or victory, or something in between - will have no decisive effect upon the cultural and religious phenomenon of fundamentalist revivalism and radicalism inside Islam. The international political consequences will be limited.

The most important influence of the outcome, whatever it may be, will be upon American society. What that will be is very difficult to foresee. Its scale might be estimated by what the war on terror has already done to change America.

You can find the entire article here. It is well worth the read.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:24 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

June 30, 2005

Creating an Enemy

Articles on China are all over the news these days. One can think of the ongoing problems with Taiwan, the continuing flap between Japan and China over Japanese interpretation of WWII in textbooks, China holding so much U.S. debt, the recent bid by a government controlled Chinese company to buy Unocal, the large trade deficit, and human rights problems. Those are only what immediate comes to mind. I am beginning to feel that many in the U.S. are creating an enemy in China whether one exists there or not. I am not going to minimize the growth of China and its increasing power in the world community. As it gains economic muscle it is inevitable that Chinese companies and the government will compete and have different interests than the U.S. At this stage China is not an equal of the U.S. and will not necessarily develop into an enemy, yet I read with increasing frequency in the Mainstream Media about emerging conflicts between the two countries which very well could be all out of proportion to the real threats.

Throughout history governments used external threats to consolidate political power. It has always been easier to focus on an external threat than look inward for the source of one's troubles. The Soviet Union provided the U.S. with just that sort of focus for almost 50 years. Likewise the U.S. provided the Soviet Union with an enemy used to rally the home team to reach greater heights of accomplishment, think of the Olympics as one example. With the demise of the Soviet Union and Russia in a state of transition, the Chinese provide the U.S. with the next opponent. Unlike the terrorists, who are definitely the enemy, the Chinese fit the conventional mode of an enemy. They are a country, "communist", have established political and economic structures and occupy a specific place. In many ways they are playing the same game we are, which the terrorists are not. They provide us with the perfect foil.

If one agrees with the premise that thoughts become things it is not inconceivable that we in the U.S. are looking for an enemy. Our sense of competition and paranoia seems to need an opponent. Maybe it is part of the human condition. I wonder if we had a different attitude toward China we would generate different results in our relationship. Or do we really need to battle against another team? I think this is a huge issue. It is certainly in the interests of the military industrial complex to have China as an enemy. It would certainly justify all sorts of new weapons programs. In addition we would have to create educational programs, security systems and who knows what else to stay ahead of the emerging behemoth. Our diplomatic core would be working in overdrive, they would once again have a mission and the world would solidify into black and white in ways that are easier to understand than today's ambiguous terrorist world, one where we never know where our enemy hides. Again I do not want to suggest that the Chinese are peaceful lambs, however I think it is important to pose the issue that perhaps we could be implementing a different strategy.

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 25, 2005

Let's Talk About Iraq

Recent polls indicate more and more Americans are turning against the war. Each day new headlines greet me in the morning with more suicide bombers or roadside bombs killing 10, 20, 30, or 40 more people. The volume of dissent grows as increasing numbers call for the removal of American troops from Iraq. "Bring them home," I read. "Okay," I say, "bring them home, then what?"

Now I don't want to suggest that I was in favor of the war. I was sceptical of Bush's claims about WMDs. I thought that he wanted to go in for other reasons. Those don't matter at the moment. I do think it is important to project a little about what the implications are before everyone jumps on the withdrawal bandwagon. Up to this point I have heard nothing regarding consequences from the people suggesting a pullout.

Given my great abilities to foresee the future (I have won every Powerball drawing I have entered, not) here are a few possible options after we leave:

The insurgents lay down their arms and join the new government. (Ha, Ha).

The insurgents continue fighting, insisting that the government is a tool of the West and illegitimate. A large scale civil war develops, the government eventually wins and Iraq establishes a democratic, constitutional government.

The insurgents continue fighting, insisting that the government is a tool of the West....The insurgency wins, establishes a strong fundamentalist state with extensive training camps for terrorists. We don't go back in because of lack of American support. The terrorists expand the war and repeatedly attack inside the U.S. The terrorists threaten every country in the area. Fundamentalism stengthens throughout the Middle East. (Oh boy)

The insurgents continue fighting....Iraq breaks apart into a number of pieces, most likely three; Sunni, Shiite, and Kurd. The Sunni's set up numerous terrorist training camps (see above). The free Kurd state creates huge problems for Turkey where the Turkish Kurds start a war to either gain independence or join with the Iraqi Kurds. The Shiites establish a state, maybe modern Muslim if we are lucky, or fundamentalist with strong ties to Iran if we are not. (This seems pleasant).

Considering the players, give me some more options that are realistic.

Posted by Chip Spear at 12:21 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

June 17, 2005

State of U.S. Auto Industry

This article says it all about the state of the U.S. auto industry and its desire to be on forefront of developments for the future. If someone ever says to me that the problem with GM is the labor unions, I will just laugh and walk away. The U.S. auto industry is an embarrassment.

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:30 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Sunni's Decide to Play Ball

A group of Sunni Arabs agreed to participate in the Shiite-led parliamentary committee that is drafting a new constitution. By agreeing to participate the Sunnis probably avoided the acceleration of violence across Iraq. The options were not pleasant. Choose participation and they are not only labeled as collaborating with the infidels and are accepting a minority position, which they hate. Choose non-participation and the insurgents become a more attractive choice for Sunnis sitting on the political fence. It would also ensure a full scale civil war. For the moment at least, they have chosen to work on keeping Iraq in one piece.

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:24 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

June 13, 2005

U. S. and African Debt Relief

A slightly more analytical report of what the African debt relief really means is available from the London Times here.
Though welcome the help is not as big as it would appear:

"...the amount which the affected countries will save in debt repayments which can now be used for food, education and health is a relatively small annual sum of about $1.5 billion. This is a fraction of the $50 billion a year needed to double annual aid flows, which Britain says is essential to bring relief to Africa.

The cost to Britain's taxpayers of the weekend deal is an average of $100 million (55 million Euros) a year over ten years: up to $960 million over the period to 2015. The US will pay up to $175 million a year. Germany's commitment in the first three years comes to about $50 million a year and France's some $33 million."

Posted by Chip Spear at 3:34 PM | Comments (0)

The Disaster of Africa

It is exceedingly hard for me to believe that anyone cannot be moved by the continual reports of the numerous disasters occuring in Africa, from Somalia to Darfur to Zimbabwe. Thousands of people are dying from AIDS, malnutrition, civil war, and genocide. It is a horror story, a real one, happening right before our eyes. And more than anything it represents where we, in the U.S., are as a country. Considering what our great country is capable of accomplishing we have done next to nothing. Last week Tony Blair pressed Bush for significant increases in aid. G.W. promised $670 million, far, far short of the billions he sought.

So what is the story here, why so little help? We face disasters of huge proportions, where is American leadership? The cynic in me thinks that G.W. sees no political advantage in getting involved. The U.S. economy is sputtering, except for the upper 1% of the population. The government is running HUGE deficits and consequently has little money to give. U.S. security is not threatened. At the moment few terrorists come from Africa yet. There are no crazy dictators with lots of oil developing non-existent weapons of mass destruction that are not targeted on U.S. cities. Because of current deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq the President has few troops to send to quell local unrest. And he certainly does not want any insurgent type war developing against U.S. troops in Africa. In addition, the various crises appear to have little impact on his domestic standing. From a political standpoint he probably feels he won't score any points by pouring money into the region And he especially won't gain anything by sending troops. The real tragedy is that the humanitarian issues don't seem to concern him. This is from a "religious" man, someone who should be concerned about just this sort of thing. Yet his interests are clearly focused on the need to continue playing to large corporate interests and his right wing religious base rather than doing the right thing.

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:59 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

June 10, 2005

Calling China's Bluff

So I am wondering why no one in the International community is willing to call China's bluff on their claim to Taiwan? Almost any history of Taiwan indicates that China has had a short history of involvement on the island and even that was rather marginal. The Dutch established a government on the island before the Chinese. That is not to say there were not Chinese there, but they came fleeing the mainland for political reasons. If someone says something often enough, with enough conviction, and they are strong enough, does it make it true?

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:01 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

June 7, 2005

Plans for Iraq

More and more people complain about Iraq now but I have heard few alternatives other than to pull out. I can certainly understand the impulse, but what about the implications? If we pull out now, or very soon, what do we leave and by extension, what have we created? Iraq would be in a state of civil war. The insurgents have substantial backing from both illicit organizations and Middle East regimes, i.e. Saudi Arabia and Syria do not want a democratic Iraq. They would find ways to funnel money to the insurgents. Assume a worse case scenario, the insurgents establish a government and develop a large network of terrorist training camps throughout the country. These terrorists go forth and multiply. We certainly won't go back in. Radical Islamists build an ever stronger political base in the middle east. Now what? The Middle East is a political and economic sewer and needs to change for everyone's sake. I certainly don't agree with our oil and economic policies, and I don't like how the U.S. has managed the war. I am not sure that this White House is capable of fixing things. And there is no question that G.W. has screwed up this war, but walking out and leaving the country to Taliban like radicals is a horrid alternative. Come on, paint me some other pictures.

Posted by Chip Spear at 8:48 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

June 1, 2005

The U.S. as Empire?

After watching the latest Star Wars movie and reading various reviews it is easy to see a political parallel between the actions of The Empire and our illustrious leader, G.W. I don't want to say that they are the same, because that is not the case, but several items do stand out, like a manufactured war, torture prisons, restrictions on civil rights, manipulation of the media, accusing opponents of being un-American and helping the enemy, lack of accountability, secrecy, etc. I can fully understand a desire and perhaps a real need to temporarily change the way the country works in a true time of war. The issue is where are we in that process? At this point, is this a true war? Or are we being manipulated by the White House to further a political agenda? How worried should we be? Will we know if we have passed the point of no return? Many believe that we have passed that point now, but G.W. was re-elected, so most do not share that view.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:31 PM | Comments (3)

May 25, 2005

World Statistics

I received this in a e-mail from a friend. I am not sure of the source so take it with a grain of salt. However the numbers seem fairly reasonable. If you happen to know otherwise, let me know and I will post them.

If we could shrink the earth's population to a village of precisely 100 people, with all the existing human ratios remaining the same, it would look something like the following: There would be:

57 Asians
21 Europeans
14 from the Western Hemisphere, both north and south
8 Africans
52 would be female
48 would be male
70 would be nonwhite
30 would be white
70 would be non-Christian
30 would be Christian
89 would be heterosexual
11 would be homosexual
6 people would possess 59% of the entire world's wealth and all 6 would be from the United States.
80 would live in substandard housing
70 would be unable to read
50 would suffer from malnutrition
1 would be near death; 1 would be near birth
1 (yes, only 1) would have a college education
1 would own a computer

Is there anything you are doing today that is addressing some of those statistics in any meaningful way? And if it is not relevant, why not? Ever curious.

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 24, 2005

Whose winning (Iraq statistics)?

Elizabeth Sullivan, from The Cleveland Plain Dealer, dug up these statistics

3.2 million: Number of Iraqis without reliable electricity
1.4 million: Number of Iraqis without jobs.
24,000: Estimated Iraqi deaths since U.S. troops arrived in 2003
39: Percentage of Iraqi families without reliable drinking water
37: Percentage of families living in neighborhoods with daily shootings
23: Percentage of Iraqi preschoolers who are chronically malnourished
13: Percentage of families with children whose father is deceased
2.5: Percentage of families whose homes have been looted
Source: U.N. Development Program's Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004, conducted among 21,668 Iraqi households in April and May 2004 and in August 2004.

Posted by Chip Spear at 2:20 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

May 12, 2005

French and British Politicians deny link to Saddam payoffs (Rant)

British politician George Galloway and former French Interior Minister Charles Pasqua denied U.S. Senate charges that they accepted millions of dollars of oil in exchange for their support. Why is this news? Have you ever heard anyone ever say, in response to accusations, "Oh yes, I did it, I am guilty." Clinton? Bush? Nixon? Who decides to put this garbage in the media?

Posted by Chip Spear at 10:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 11, 2005

Kim Jong Il, Why Negotiate?

Imagine for a little while here that you are Kim Jong Il, grand poohbah of North Korea. Your picture is everywhere. Your subjects worship you as a God, or at least they act like they do. Your only care for them is how they might facilitate you path to glory. You kill them if they look at you funny. Your palaces are grand while your subjects have nothing. Why should you care? They are the real little people. Meanwhile, the world looks at you as a maniac, an unruly and out of control crazy. You think they are stupid. To acquire more power you develop nuclear weapons. You lie, you cheat, you sell drugs, you counterfeit any currency you can, especially American and cheat on any agreement that some country is stupid enough to make if it is expedient. Again, why should you care? You get away with it every time. You look at everyone with utter contempt. The current powers of the world are scrambling, attempting to rein you in and control your maniacal tendencies. They really, truly think they can reason with you. They are afraid you will upset all their delicate diplomatic balances. Oh, too bad. The Americans are terrified that you will use that bomb to attack South Korea. They are also fearful that the Japanese might re-build their dormant military. The Chinese, though nervous, seem willing to accept your move, figuring you aren’t stupid enough to attack them. In addition, the Chinese see this as a way to counter American influence in the area. More opportunity for them if the Japanese and South Koreans began to break away from the U.S. Likewise the Russians also see opportunities. If you play your cards right, a nuclear arsenal makes you a powerbroker in the region, an equal at the table of world affairs. Act just crazy enough and the Americans might really think that you’d use a nuclear bomb against the South if they attacked. Why negotiate? Why would you care about American aid for your subjects, who you could care less about, when you would become a major player on the world stage? Who would have thought? You are scoring big on this one.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:36 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

May 10, 2005

The President Scores Big in Georgia

There are days when being the President of the United States is one hell of a job. You go to a foreign country, hundreds of thousands of people gather in a huge square to cheer every sound you make. You deliver a speech telling every person in the country how wonderful they are. An inspiration to the world, you say. People scream in adoration. No critics, no doubting media, no nasty Democrats to spoil your day. You look fabulous on television when the home folks see you standing in front of all those fans. It is also hard for any American not to look past whatever personal feelings he or she may have about the President and not feel a certain sense of pride and awe that the people of Georgia have joined us in our grand experiment of democracy however imperfect it may be. Wow, it is better than a ticker tape parade in NY City. The President does absolutely nothing and he scores big, nationally and internationally. The Dems will have a hard time launching any counter offensive to that.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 8, 2005

Interesting analysis of North Korean situation

I found this interesting analysis of the political situation in North Korea. It certainly provides more information than one normally finds in the mainstream American media.

Posted by Chip Spear at 9:11 PM | Comments (0)

Who's winning, US or the Axis of Evil?

A few years after G.W. identified the Axis of Evil I think one should ask, "How are we doing?". A quick review indicates things are not so good. Our military is completely bogged down in Iraq. It is extremely questionable whether the current "government" will be able to establish sufficient internal stability to both allow the U.S. to leave and itself to survive. If the Iraqi government does not survive, whatever emerges is not going to be pretty to our little eyes. Iran, nuclear power and weapons here we come. How is the U.S. going to stop them from developing nukes? Economic sanctions? Oh, those sure work? They certainly brought down Castro rather quickly. Why would the Iranians agree to give up their program when the U.S. is tied up in Iraq? The government, like all governments is interested in maintaining power. That government is not threatened by the U.S. or its European allies in the slightest way. Are they going to acquiese because they are nice guys. They want to expand their power and influence, not shrink it. I would say they are doing just fine. And then there is North Korea, seemingly about ready to test a nuclear bomb. There are not many people in the world happy about that except Kim Jong Il and his friends. The North Koreans have managed to develop a bomb despite threats from the U.S. It has refused to negotiate, managed to extract enough foreign aid and trade to maintain control of the military and necessary elite groups. The government has been very successful at making many promises which it does not keep. The International community has agreed to many demands, not all, but enough to allow the government to remain in firm control of its country. People and countries don't change unless they absolutely have to and North Korea doesn't have to. In sports terms its offense is marching down the field and we don't know how to stop it.

The Axis of Evil appears to be ahead in this game. Both Iran and North Korea are moving steadily to their goals, ready to score. The U.S., on the other hand, is having an extremely difficult time mounting an effective defense. And even in Iraq the game is definitely in doubt.

Posted by Chip Spear at 7:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 3, 2005

Danger Zone - Killing of an Italian Agent

My Granddaddy said to me when I was quite young, "Son, if you are in a dangerous situation, don't be stupid." I wasn't near the shooting of the Italians, and I don't know too many of the specifics, other than what I have read in the media, but I feel that if I was driving a car on the road to the Baghdad airport, where bombs explode and bullets routinely kill people on a regular basis, I would follow my Granddaddy's advice. I would assume that sometimes people with the best intentions make mistakes. I would make absolutely sure my own intentions were clear in order to minimize whatever mistakes the "other guys" might make.

So what seems to be going on here is typical politics. I don't see how the Italian government could accept the findings of the U.S. unless the Americans admitted total wrongdoing. One can ask, "What would the Italian government gain from its own citizens by agreeing with the U.S., as opposed to contesting the report?" By standing up to the Americans the government establishes its independence, solidifies its identity, creates some distance from an unpopular war, gains bargaining chips with the U.S. on the world stage, and still allows itself the opportunity to be a good guy and not leave Iraq, depending how the game progresses. They would seem to have more options by opposing the report instead of accepting it. The facts don't really seem to matter.

Posted by Chip Spear at 6:57 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack